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Dacia-Buiucani v Sheriff Tiraspol

Dacia-Buiucani

2–5Full time

Sheriff Tiraspol

Super Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Joma Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Dacia-Buiucani 2–5 Sheriff Tiraspol SHERIFF TIRASPOL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sheriff Tiraspol win~~59%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.258

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheriff Tiraspol win at 59%.
2′Much as we predicted: Sheriff Tiraspol was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 16–23–60
2′KICK-OFF Dacia-Buiucani v Sheriff Tiraspol
15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Sheriff Tiraspol
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Dacia-Buiucani
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Dacia-Buiucani 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol
24′A goal for Sheriff Tiraspol on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–13–84
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sheriff Tiraspol
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Dacia-Buiucani
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Dacia-Buiucani
45′45′ and it is 0–2: Sheriff Tiraspol have scored. 0–2 · 0–2–97
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Dacia-Buiucani 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sheriff Tiraspol win: 59% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Dacia-Buiucani 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol
46′SECOND HALF Dacia-Buiucani 0–2 Sheriff Tiraspol
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Dacia-Buiucani 0–3 Sheriff Tiraspol
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Dacia-Buiucani 1–3 Sheriff Tiraspol
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dacia-Buiucani 2–3 Sheriff Tiraspol
75′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dacia-Buiucani 2–3 Sheriff Tiraspol
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Dacia-Buiucani
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dacia-Buiucani 2–4 Sheriff Tiraspol
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sheriff Tiraspol
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Sheriff Tiraspol
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Dacia-Buiucani 2–5 Sheriff Tiraspol
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Dacia-Buiucani 2–5 Sheriff Tiraspol
FTFULL TIME Dacia-Buiucani 2–5 Sheriff Tiraspol
FTDacia-Buiucani 2–5 Sheriff Tiraspol · Sheriff Tiraspol win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dacia-Buiucani win15%

Draw26%

Sheriff Tiraspol win59%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Joma Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dacia-Buiucani

Formation not confirmed

– C. Tuhar

– D. Calestru

– D. Baciu

– C. Ghedroutan

– I. Lambarskiy

– V. Ciumasu

– A. Muntean

– S. Efros

– V. Gurgurov

– R. Novicov

– S. Turcan

Coach · Viorel Frunza

Substitutes

– · V. Dumbrava

– · V. Lupasco

– · V. Varzaru

– · D. Popovici

– · D. Straistaru

– · A. Josan

– · M. Rosioru

Sheriff Tiraspol

Formation not confirmed

– E. Timbur

– V. Fratea

– J. Asprilla Moreno

– D. Forov

– S. Magassouba

– M. Corotcov

– B. Fomba

– J. Modelo

– A. Pergjoni

– J. Pineda

– S. Kone

Coach · Victor Mihailov

Substitutes

– · N. Cebotari

– · K. Kalabatama

– · B. Ciss

– · A. Egupov

– · E. Afetse

– · L. Jaures-Ulrich

– · V. Costin

– · V. Cozma

– · D. Klas

– · Sapata

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dacia-Buiucani

Formation not confirmed

– C. Tuhar

– D. Calestru

– D. Baciu

– C. Ghedroutan

– I. Lambarskiy

– V. Ciumasu

– A. Muntean

– S. Efros

– V. Gurgurov

– R. Novicov

– S. Turcan

Coach · Viorel Frunza

Substitutes

– · V. Dumbrava

– · V. Lupasco

– · V. Varzaru

– · D. Popovici

– · D. Straistaru

– · A. Josan

– · M. Rosioru

Sheriff Tiraspol

Formation not confirmed

– E. Timbur

– V. Fratea

– J. Asprilla Moreno

– D. Forov

– S. Magassouba

– M. Corotcov

– B. Fomba

– J. Modelo

– A. Pergjoni

– J. Pineda

– S. Kone

Coach · Victor Mihailov

Substitutes

– · N. Cebotari

– · K. Kalabatama

– · B. Ciss

– · A. Egupov

– · E. Afetse

– · L. Jaures-Ulrich

– · V. Costin

– · V. Cozma

– · D. Klas

– · Sapata

Our number · sheriff tiraspol winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

59% The market68%

Us59%

~~Market~~68%

We make Sheriff Tiraspol a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sheriff tiraspol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dacia-Buiucani win	15%	12%	+4
Draw	26%	20%	+6
Sheriff Tiraspol win	59%	68%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	47%	58%	−11
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	37%	−12
Dacia-Buiucani or draw	41%	32%	+9
Dacia-Buiucani clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sheriff Tiraspol clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.7 12.6 12.0 7.1 3.3 1 4.9 11.7 8.9 5.3 2.4 2 2.5 4.2 3.6 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dacia-Buiucani down, Sheriff Tiraspol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 684 Super Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 7 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dacia-Buiucani at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sheriff Tiraspol away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Dacia-Buiucani, 1.77 for Sheriff Tiraspol. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 14

~~Both scored~~4 of 14

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–0 DAC · DAC 1–2 SHE · SHE 2–0 DAC · DAC 0–4 SHE

Form · last six in Super Liga

DACIA-BUIUCANI

WDDLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

SHERIFF TIRASPOL

DWLDWW1–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	13	+22	28
2	Zimbru	13	+15	26
3	Petrocub	13	+11	24
4	Dacia-Buiucani	13	+1	20
5	Milsami Orhei	13	−4	17
6	Politehnica UTM	13	−1	15
7	Sireți	13	−11	7
8	CSF Bălți	13	−33	5