CSF Bălți v Politehnica UTM prediction · Super Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

CSF Bălți 1–4 Politehnica UTM POLITEHNICA UTM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Politehnica UTM win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.403

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Politehnica UTM win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Politehnica UTM 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
2′KICK-OFF CSF Bălți v Politehnica UTM
7′Politehnica UTM find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–15–73
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' CSF Bălți 0–1 Politehnica UTM
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Politehnica UTM win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
8′We said Politehnica UTM at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 12–15–73
23′A goal for Politehnica UTM on 22′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–89
23′We said Politehnica UTM at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 3–7–89
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' CSF Bălți 0–2 Politehnica UTM
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Politehnica UTM win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
25′We said Politehnica UTM at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' CSF Bălți
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–2 · 2–6–92
44′Politehnica UTM score on 44′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' CSF Bălți 0–3 Politehnica UTM
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Politehnica UTM win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
45′We said Politehnica UTM at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
45′HALF-TIME CSF Bălți 0–3 Politehnica UTM
46′SECOND HALF CSF Bălți 0–3 Politehnica UTM
58′CSF Bălți find the net on 58′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–95
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' CSF Bălți 1–3 Politehnica UTM
78′A goal for Politehnica UTM on 78′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' CSF Bălți 1–4 Politehnica UTM
79′We said Politehnica UTM at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME CSF Bălți 1–4 Politehnica UTM
FTCSF Bălți 1–4 Politehnica UTM · Politehnica UTM win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Politehnica UTM are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSF Bălți 27%, draw 24%, Politehnica UTM 48%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on CSF Bălți v Politehnica UTMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CSF Bălți win27%

Draw24%

Politehnica UTM win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueStadionul Orasenesc

Line-ups

CSF Bălți

Politehnica UTM

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSF Bălți

Politehnica UTM

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

Last match: 11 Oct · Super Liga (Moldova)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Politehnica UTM	14	−1	16
8	CSF Bălți	14	−36	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSF Bălți

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Nazarciuc

7 D. Rusu

20 M. Hacina

21 E. Puga

22 R. Gomez

24 D. Rogac

29 N. Garciu

31 D. Harabari

32 S. Roga

55 C. Gutul

71 D. Faina

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · V. Vesca

4 · C. Rosca

5 · S. Creciun

8 · V. Glavatchi

9 · M. Cebotari

10 · A. Bagrin

Politehnica UTM

Formation not confirmed

72 P. Socolov

2 I. Arhirii

7 A. Sprinsean

8 A. Mardari

15 M. Cojusea

16 M. Tipac

20 S. Gandi

22 N. Lipcan

23 D. Andreiciu

77 T. Katz

79 M. Caruntu

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · A. Tuev

25 · D. Strainu

9 · S. Decev

10 · Y. Noh Nafeng

11 · Y. Nkalle

99 · E. Usatenco

Our number · politehnica utm winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Politehnica UTM a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSF Bălți v Politehnica UTM~~1.36 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 16~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSF Bălți win	27%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Politehnica UTM win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
CSF Bălți or draw	52%	–	–
CSF Bălți clean sheet	16%	–	–
Politehnica UTM clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.6 6.1 6.8 4.4 2.2 1 4.2 11.0 8.7 5.5 2.8 2 3.8 6.6 5.9 3.6 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSF Bălți down, Politehnica UTM across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 690 Super Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSF Bălți at home: 0.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Politehnica UTM away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for CSF Bălți, 1.91 for Politehnica UTM. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~POL 6–0 CSF · CSF 3–0 POL · POL 3–1 CSF · CSF 3–2 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super Liga this season · since 22 Aug

CSF BĂLȚI

LLLLLL0–4 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–7 · 0–3

POLITEHNICA UTM

LDWLLD0–4 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	15	+27	34
2	Zimbru	14	+15	27
3	Petrocub	15	+11	26
4	Dacia-Buiucani	15	−2	21
5	Milsami Orhei	14	−4	18
6	Politehnica UTM	14	−1	16
7	Sireți	15	−10	10
8	CSF Bălți	14	−36	5