Zimbru II v Spartanii Selemet prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Zimbru II 3–1 Spartanii Selemet ZIMBRU II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Zimbru II win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.137

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zimbru II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zimbru II 70%, draw 14%, Spartanii Selemet 16%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Zimbru II v Spartanii SelemetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Zimbru II win70%

Draw14%

Spartanii Selemet win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zimbru II

Spartanii Selemet

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Zimbru II	10	−4	13
6	Spartanii Selemet	10	−28	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zimbru ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Zimbru II a 70% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.5, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zimbru II v Spartanii Selemet~~3.17 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 4~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zimbru II win	70%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Spartanii Selemet win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Zimbru II or draw	84%	–	–
Zimbru II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Spartanii Selemet clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.9%

0123450 1 3.7 4.6 3.4 2 5.1 6.9 4.9 2.5 3 5.1 6.9 5.0 2.5 4 4.0 5.4 3.9 5 2.6 3.5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zimbru II down, Spartanii Selemet across0–5 goals a side shown (87.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 617 Liga 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zimbru II at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Spartanii Selemet away: 1.33 scored, 5.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.17 goals for Zimbru II, 1.47 for Spartanii Selemet. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–4 ZIM · ZIM 4–0 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 28 Aug

ZIMBRU II

LWDLWW1–5 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

SPARTANII SELEMET

LLLLWL1–6 · 3–4 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–5

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vulturii Cutezători	10	+14	22
2	Iskra	10	+13	19
3	FCM Ungheni	10	+6	15
4	Zimbru II	10	−4	13
5	Univer Comrat	10	−1	12
6	Spartanii Selemet	10	−28	4

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Zimbru II v Spartanii Selemet

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Zimbru II

Spartanii Selemet

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 28 Aug

The table