Univer Comrat v Spartanii Selemet prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Univer Comrat 5–4 Spartanii Selemet UNIVER COMRAT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Univer Comrat win~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Univer Comrat are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Univer Comrat 74%, draw 13%, Spartanii Selemet 13%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Univer Comrat v Spartanii SelemetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Univer Comrat win74%

Draw13%

Spartanii Selemet win13%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Univer Comrat

Spartanii Selemet

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Univer Comrat	9	−2	9
6	Spartanii Selemet	9	−27	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · univer comrat winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Univer Comrat a 74% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.3, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Univer Comrat v Spartanii Selemet~~3.33 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Univer Comrat win

Published at 77%, 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Univer Comrat win	74%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Spartanii Selemet win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Univer Comrat or draw	87%	–	–
Univer Comrat clean sheet	29%	–	–
Spartanii Selemet clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.1%

0123450 1 3.9 4.4 2.9 2 5.6 6.8 4.4 2.0 3 5.9 7.1 4.6 2.1 4 4.8 5.8 3.7 5 3.3 3.9 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Univer Comrat down, Spartanii Selemet across0–5 goals a side shown (86.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 612 Liga 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Univer Comrat at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Spartanii Selemet away: 1.33 scored, 5.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.33 goals for Univer Comrat, 1.31 for Spartanii Selemet. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 0–3 UNI · SPA 1–6 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 21 Aug

UNIVER COMRAT

DWLDDL3–3 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

SPARTANII SELEMET

LLLLLW0–10 · 1–6 · 3–4 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vulturii Cutezători	9	+15	22
2	Iskra	9	+13	18
3	FCM Ungheni	9	+6	14
4	Zimbru II	9	−5	10
5	Univer Comrat	9	−2	9
6	Spartanii Selemet	9	−27	4

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Univer Comrat v Spartanii Selemet

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Univer Comrat

Spartanii Selemet

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 21 Aug

The table