Spartanii Selemet v FCM Ungheni prediction · Liga 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Spartanii SelemetDrawFCM Ungheni

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FCM Ungheni 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FCM Ungheni are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartanii Selemet 20%, draw 14%, FCM Ungheni 66%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 82%.

The AI’s read on Spartanii Selemet v FCM UngheniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Spartanii Selemet win20%

Draw14%

FCM Ungheni win66%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadionul Suruceni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartanii Selemet

FCM Ungheni

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FCM Ungheni	11	+11	18
6	Spartanii Selemet	11	−30	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fcm ungheni winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make FCM Ungheni a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–3.7, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartanii Selemet v FCM Ungheni~~2.03 – 3.66

~~Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 18~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartanii Selemet win	20%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
FCM Ungheni win	66%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	90%	–	–
Both teams to score	82%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	79%	–	–
Spartanii Selemet or draw	34%	–	–
Spartanii Selemet clean sheet	4%	–	–
FCM Ungheni clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 5.3%

0123450 2.6 2.9 2.5 1 2.9 4.8 5.3 4.6 3.32 2.9 4.6 5.1 4.4 3.13 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.14 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartanii Selemet down, FCM Ungheni across0–5 goals a side shown (79.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 619 Liga 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.7% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartanii Selemet at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). FCM Ungheni away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Spartanii Selemet, 3.66 for FCM Ungheni. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCM 5–2 SPA · SPA 1–1 FCM · FCM 0–1 SPA · SPA 3–3 FCM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

SPARTANII SELEMET

LLLWLL3–4 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 4–5 · 1–3

FCM UNGHENI

WWDLDW4–3 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 6–1

The table

2026/27 · Divisia A · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Iskra	11	+14	22
2	Vulturii Cutezători	11	+9	22
3	FCM Ungheni	11	+11	18
4	Zimbru II	11	−2	16
5	Univer Comrat	11	−2	12
6	Spartanii Selemet	11	−30	4

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Spartanii Selemet v FCM Ungheni

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Rest & schedule

Spartanii Selemet

FCM Ungheni

The game in numbers

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Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 4 Sept

The table