Iskra v FCM Ungheni prediction · Liga 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Iskra 2–2 FCM Ungheni ISKRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iskra win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.985

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iskra are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iskra 51%, draw 20%, FCM Ungheni 30%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Iskra v FCM UngheniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Iskra win51%

Draw20%

FCM Ungheni win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iskra

FCM Ungheni

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 1 (Moldova)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Iskra	9	+13	18
3	FCM Ungheni	9	+6	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iskra winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Iskra a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iskra v FCM Ungheni~~2.17 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Iskra win

Published at 54%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iskra win	51%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
FCM Ungheni win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Iskra or draw	70%	–	–
Iskra clean sheet	22%	–	–
FCM Ungheni clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.6 4.2 3.1 1 5.6 7.7 6.1 3.4 2 5.5 8.1 6.3 3.5 3 3.9 5.7 4.5 2.5 4 2.2 3.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iskra down, FCM Ungheni across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 612 Liga 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iskra at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FCM Ungheni away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Iskra, 1.60 for FCM Ungheni. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCM 2–3 ISK · ISK 1–0 FCM · FCM 3–1 ISK · ISK 2–1 FCM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 21 Aug

ISKRA

WWWLWL10–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

FCM UNGHENI

WLWWDL3–1 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vulturii Cutezători	9	+15	22
2	Iskra	9	+13	18
3	FCM Ungheni	9	+6	14
4	Zimbru II	9	−5	10
5	Univer Comrat	9	−2	9
6	Spartanii Selemet	9	−27	4

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Iskra v FCM Ungheni

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Iskra

FCM Ungheni

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga 1 this season · since 21 Aug

The table