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FCM Ungheni v Zimbru II

FCM Ungheni

1–2Full time

Zimbru II

Liga 1 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:49

FCM Ungheni 1–2 Zimbru II FCM UNGHENI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FCM Ungheni win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.106

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FCM Ungheni win65%

Draw16%

Zimbru II win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fcm ungheni winPublished 9 Oct 15:22

65% The market–

Us65%

We make FCM Ungheni a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FCM Ungheni win	65%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Zimbru II win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
FCM Ungheni or draw	81%	–	–
FCM Ungheni clean sheet	24%	–	–
Zimbru II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 2.2 1 3.9 5.4 4.1 2.1 2 5.2 7.3 5.4 2.8 3 4.8 6.7 5.0 2.6 4 3.5 4.9 3.6 5 2.2 3.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+FCM Ungheni down, Zimbru II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 607 Liga 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FCM Ungheni at home: 4.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zimbru II away: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.95 goals for FCM Ungheni, 1.51 for Zimbru II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ZIM 1–3 FCM · FCM 5–1 ZIM · ZIM 0–2 FCM · FCM 3–3 ZIM

Form · last six in Liga 1

FCM UNGHENI

WWLWWD6–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 5–2 · 1–1

ZIMBRU II

LLLWDL1–2 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vulturii Cutezători	8	+13	19
2	Iskra	8	+14	18
3	FCM Ungheni	8	+7	14
4	Oguzsport	7	+5	14
5	FC Stăuceni	6	+3	10
6	Univer Comrat	8	0	9
7	FC National Ialoveni	6	−1	7
8	Făleşti	6	−2	7
9	Victoria Bardar	7	−5	7
10	Zimbru II	8	−6	7
11	Spartanii Selemet	8	−28	1