Vaqueros Reynosa v Correcaminos UAT II prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:35

Vaqueros Reynosa 2–4 Correcaminos UAT II VAQUEROS REYNOSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vaqueros Reynosa win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.965

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vaqueros Reynosa win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vaqueros Reynosa was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
1′KICK-OFF Vaqueros Reynosa v Correcaminos UAT II
7′A goal for Vaqueros Reynosa on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vaqueros Reynosa 1–0 Correcaminos UAT II
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Vaqueros Reynosa win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
8′We published Vaqueros Reynosa at 54%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
26′Vaqueros Reynosa score on 25′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Vaqueros Reynosa 2–0 Correcaminos UAT II
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Vaqueros Reynosa win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
27′We published Vaqueros Reynosa at 54%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
29′Correcaminos UAT II find the net on 29′. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–15–6
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vaqueros Reynosa 2–1 Correcaminos UAT II
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Vaqueros Reynosa win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
33′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 79–15–5
35′We published Vaqueros Reynosa at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–15–5
38′A goal for Correcaminos UAT II on 38′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 44–36–20
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Vaqueros Reynosa 2–2 Correcaminos UAT II
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Vaqueros Reynosa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
40′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 43–37–20
45′Correcaminos UAT II score on 42′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 14–27–59
45′We said Vaqueros Reynosa at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–3 · 14–27–59
45′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 14–27–59
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' Vaqueros Reynosa 2–3 Correcaminos UAT II
45′HALF-TIME Vaqueros Reynosa 2–3 Correcaminos UAT II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Vaqueros Reynosa win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Correcaminos UAT II win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Vaqueros Reynosa win 14%)
48′SECOND HALF Vaqueros Reynosa 2–3 Correcaminos UAT II
58′We said Vaqueros Reynosa at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–25–66
72′We said Vaqueros Reynosa at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–76
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Vaqueros Reynosa win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
98′Correcaminos UAT II find the net on 90′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Vaqueros Reynosa 2–4 Correcaminos UAT II
99′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Vaqueros Reynosa 2–4 Correcaminos UAT II
FTVaqueros Reynosa 2–4 Correcaminos UAT II · Vaqueros Reynosa win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vaqueros Reynosa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vaqueros Reynosa 54%, draw 25%, Correcaminos UAT II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Vaqueros Reynosa v Correcaminos UAT IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vaqueros Reynosa win54%

Draw25%

Correcaminos UAT II win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vaqueros Reynosa

Correcaminos UAT II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vaqueros reynosa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Vaqueros Reynosa a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vaqueros Reynosa v Correcaminos UAT II~~1.65 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vaqueros Reynosa win	54%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Correcaminos UAT II win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Vaqueros Reynosa or draw	78%	–	–
Vaqueros Reynosa clean sheet	40%	–	–
Correcaminos UAT II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 8.3 7.2 3.4 1 12.5 11.4 5.3 2 10.1 9.0 4.2 3 5.6 5.0 2.3 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vaqueros Reynosa down, Correcaminos UAT II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,520 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Vaqueros Reynosa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Correcaminos UAT II away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Vaqueros Reynosa, 0.93 for Correcaminos UAT II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

VAQUEROS REYNOSA

WDLWWW4–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

CORRECAMINOS UAT II

LDLWWW0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vaqueros Reynosa	7	+4	16
2	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	+8	15
3	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	7	+5	13
4	Acatlan	7	+2	13
5	FC Santiago	7	+4	11
6	Correcaminos UAT II	7	+1	11
7	Guerreros	6	−2	8
8	Atlético Saltillo	7	−7	8
9	Real Apodaca	7	−6	4
10	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2