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Vaqueros Reynosa v Atlético Saltillo

Vaqueros Reynosa

2–1Full time

Atlético Saltillo

Liga Premier Serie A · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Vaqueros Reynosa 2–1 Atlético Saltillo VAQUEROS REYNOSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vaqueros Reynosa win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.214

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vaqueros Reynosa win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vaqueros Reynosa was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–19–17
1′KICK-OFF Vaqueros Reynosa v Atlético Saltillo
2′Much as we predicted: Vaqueros Reynosa was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–17
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Vaqueros Reynosa 1–0 Atlético Saltillo
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Vaqueros Reynosa 1–1 Atlético Saltillo
23′Atlético Saltillo find the net on 10′. 1–1. 1–1 · 58–24–18
24′Atlético Saltillo find the net on 10′. 1–1. 1–1 · 58–24–18
45′HALF-TIME Vaqueros Reynosa 1–1 Atlético Saltillo
46′SECOND HALF Vaqueros Reynosa 1–1 Atlético Saltillo
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Vaqueros Reynosa 2–1 Atlético Saltillo
FTFULL TIME Vaqueros Reynosa 2–1 Atlético Saltillo
FTVaqueros Reynosa 2–1 Atlético Saltillo · Vaqueros Reynosa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vaqueros Reynosa win62%

Draw20%

Atlético Saltillo win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vaqueros reynosa winPublished 11 Oct 01:01

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Vaqueros Reynosa a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vaqueros Reynosa win	62%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Atlético Saltillo win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Vaqueros Reynosa or draw	82%	–	–
Vaqueros Reynosa clean sheet	35%	–	–
Atlético Saltillo clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 4.2 4.2 2.3 1 8.2 8.7 4.7 2 8.7 9.0 4.9 3 6.4 6.6 3.6 4 3.7 3.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vaqueros Reynosa down, Atlético Saltillo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,509 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Vaqueros Reynosa at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Atlético Saltillo away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Vaqueros Reynosa, 1.09 for Atlético Saltillo. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

VAQUEROS REYNOSA

WWDLWW1–0 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

ATLÉTICO SALTILLO

LWWLDL1–4 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	+12	18
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
3	Acatlan	6	+4	13
4	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
5	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
6	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	+6	11
7	Halcones Negros	6	+13	10
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
10	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	0	7
12	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
13	Guerreros	6	−2	7
14	Calor de San Pedro	5	−5	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	6	−1	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	−18	0