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Real Refineros v Halcones Negros

Real Refineros

2–3Full time

Halcones Negros

Liga Premier Serie A · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Real Refineros 2–3 Halcones Negros HALCONES NEGROS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Halcones Negros win~~49%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.387

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.103

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Halcones Negros win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Halcones Negros 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
1′KICK-OFF Real Refineros v Halcones Negros
2′Little has changed for our model: Halcones Negros 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 28–22–50
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Real Refineros 0–1 Halcones Negros
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Real Refineros 1–1 Halcones Negros
23′Real Refineros find the net on 18′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–27–46
24′Real Refineros find the net on 18′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–27–46
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Real Refineros 1–2 Halcones Negros
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Real Refineros 2–2 Halcones Negros
45′HALF-TIME Real Refineros 2–2 Halcones Negros
46′SECOND HALF Real Refineros 2–2 Halcones Negros
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Real Refineros 2–3 Halcones Negros
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Halcones Negros
90′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Real Refineros
FTReal Refineros 2–3 Halcones Negros · Halcones Negros win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Real Refineros win29%

Draw22%

Halcones Negros win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · halcones negros winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

49% The market74%

Us49%

~~Market~~74%

We make Halcones Negros a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 25 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · halcones negros win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Refineros win	29%	8%	+20
Draw	22%	17%	+5
Halcones Negros win	49%	74%	−25
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	46%	+16
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Real Refineros or draw	51%	26%	+25
Real Refineros clean sheet	17%	–	–
Halcones Negros clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.5 7.3 6.7 4.3 2.2 1 5.5 9.7 8.6 5.4 2.7 2 3.8 6.5 5.8 3.6 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Refineros down, Halcones Negros across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,509 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Real Refineros at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Halcones Negros away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Real Refineros, 1.92 for Halcones Negros. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

REAL REFINEROS

LWDDDL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–3

HALCONES NEGROS

DLWLWW0–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 7–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	+12	18
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
3	Acatlan	6	+4	13
4	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
5	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
6	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	+6	11
7	Halcones Negros	6	+13	10
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
10	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	0	7
12	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
13	Guerreros	6	−2	7
14	Calor de San Pedro	5	−5	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	6	−1	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	−18	0