Real Refineros v Guerreros del Pacifico

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Refineros win at 50%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Real Refineros v Guerreros del Pacifico
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Real Refineros was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
4. 25′Guerreros del Pacifico find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–54
5. 25′⚽ GOAL · 23' Real Refineros 0–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
6. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
7. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Guerreros del Pacifico win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Real Refineros win 21%)
8. 26′We said Real Refineros at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–25–54
9. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 20–25–55
11. 30′A goal for Real Refineros on 30′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–31–25
12. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Real Refineros 1–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
14. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Real Refineros win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Guerreros del Pacifico win 25%)
15. 45′HALF-TIME Real Refineros 1–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
16. 46′PENALTY MISSED · 44' Real Refineros
17. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
18. 49′We said Real Refineros at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–39–22
19. 49′SECOND HALF Real Refineros 1–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
20. 52′Real Refineros score on 52′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 78–17–5
21. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Real Refineros 2–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
22. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
23. 54′We published Real Refineros at 50%. Our model now makes it 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–5
24. 54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 79–17–5
25. 58′We published Real Refineros at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
26. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
27. 68′Guerreros del Pacifico find the net on 66′. 2–2. 2–2 · 27–56–17
28. 68′⚽ GOAL · 66' Real Refineros 2–2 Guerreros del Pacifico
29. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 27% now
30. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Real Refineros win 27%)
31. 70′We said Real Refineros at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 26–58–16
32. 71′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 25–60–16
33. 71′A goal for Guerreros del Pacifico on 71′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 4–21–75
34. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Real Refineros 2–3 Guerreros del Pacifico
35. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
36. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Guerreros del Pacifico win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
37. 72′We said Real Refineros at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–76
38. 72′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–20–76
39. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Real Refineros win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
40. 95′Real Refineros score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 2–97–1
41. 95′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 2–97–1
42. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Real Refineros 3–3 Guerreros del Pacifico
43. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Guerreros del Pacifico win 1%)
44. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 3–3 · 0–100–0
45. FTFULL TIME Real Refineros 3–3 Guerreros del Pacifico
46. FTReal Refineros 3–3 Guerreros del Pacifico after 90 minutes, as graded · Real Refineros win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.