Real Apodaca v Correcaminos UAT II prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Real Apodaca 0–1 Correcaminos UAT II REAL APODACA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Apodaca win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.022

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Apodaca win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Apodaca 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
1′KICK-OFF Real Apodaca v Correcaminos UAT II
15′Real Apodaca are down to ten from 15′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 53–28–19
15′🟥 RED CARD · 15' Real Apodaca
36′Little has changed for our model: Real Apodaca 56% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–35–19
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 53% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 53% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 53% now
39′Little has changed for our model: Real Apodaca 56% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–36–18
45′HALF-TIME Real Apodaca 0–0 Correcaminos UAT II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Apodaca win: 56% at kick-off, 45% now
46′SECOND HALF Real Apodaca 0–0 Correcaminos UAT II
49′🟥 RED CARD · 15' Real Apodaca
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Real Apodaca 0–0 Correcaminos UAT II
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Real Apodaca 0–1 Correcaminos UAT II
FTReal Apodaca 0–1 Correcaminos UAT II · Real Apodaca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Apodaca win56%

Draw25%

Correcaminos UAT II win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Apodaca

Correcaminos UAT II

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real apodaca winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Real Apodaca a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Apodaca win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Correcaminos UAT II win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Real Apodaca or draw	81%	–	–
Real Apodaca clean sheet	43%	–	–
Correcaminos UAT II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 8.9 7.0 3.0 1 13.5 11.3 4.8 2 11.0 9.1 3.9 3 6.1 5.0 2.2 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Apodaca down, Correcaminos UAT II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,513 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Apodaca at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Correcaminos UAT II away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Real Apodaca, 0.85 for Correcaminos UAT II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~COR 1–0 REA · REA 1–0 COR · COR 0–1 REA · REA 4–3 COR

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

REAL APODACA

DLLWLL0–0 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–2

CORRECAMINOS UAT II

DLDLWW0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	7	+12	19
2	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	+8	14
3	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
4	Halcones Negros	7	+14	13
5	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
6	Acatlan	7	+2	13
7	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Calor de San Pedro	6	+1	10
10	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	7	0	8
11	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
12	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
13	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
14	Guerreros	6	−2	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	7	−2	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	7	−24	0