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La Tribu de Cd. Juarez v FC Santiago

La Tribu de Cd. Juarez

0–2Full time

FC Santiago

Liga Premier Serie A · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–2 FC Santiago LA TRIBU DE CD. JUAREZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF La Tribu de Cd. Juarez v FC Santiago
2′Much as we predicted: La Tribu de Cd. Juarez was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
3′Much as we predicted: La Tribu de Cd. Juarez was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
45′HALF-TIME La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–0 FC Santiago
46′SECOND HALF La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–0 FC Santiago
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–1 FC Santiago
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–2 FC Santiago
66′🟥 RED CARD · 65' FC Santiago
FTFULL TIME La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–2 FC Santiago
FTLa Tribu de Cd. Juarez 0–2 FC Santiago · La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win47%

Draw24%

FC Santiago win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · la tribu de cd. juarez winPublished 11 Oct 01:01

47% The market–

Us47%

We make La Tribu de Cd. Juarez a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
FC Santiago win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez or draw	70%	–	–
La Tribu de Cd. Juarez clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Santiago clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.6 6.6 4.3 1 8.6 10.8 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 8.8 5.6 2.5 3 4.1 5.0 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+La Tribu de Cd. Juarez down, FC Santiago across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,509 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

La Tribu de Cd. Juarez at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). FC Santiago away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for La Tribu de Cd. Juarez, 1.30 for FC Santiago. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

LA TRIBU DE CD. JUAREZ

WWLWWL4–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–3

FC SANTIAGO

LWLWLD0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	+12	18
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
3	Acatlan	6	+4	13
4	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
5	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
6	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	+6	11
7	Halcones Negros	6	+13	10
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
10	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	0	7
12	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
13	Guerreros	6	−2	7
14	Calor de San Pedro	5	−5	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	6	−1	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	−18	0