Halcones Negros v Acambaro prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 07:01

Halcones Negros 0–6 Acambaro HALCONES NEGROS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Halcones Negros win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.044

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Halcones Negros are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Halcones Negros 62%, draw 18%, Acambaro 21%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Halcones Negros v AcambaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Halcones Negros win62%

Draw18%

Acambaro win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Halcones Negros

Acambaro

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Halcones Negros	7	+14	14
4	Acambaro	7	+11	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · halcones negros winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Halcones Negros a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Halcones Negros v Acambaro~~2.63 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Halcones Negros win	62%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Acambaro win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Halcones Negros or draw	79%	–	–
Halcones Negros clean sheet	25%	–	–
Acambaro clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.3 2.9 2.0 1 5.0 6.9 4.7 2.3 2 6.1 8.1 5.6 2.7 3 5.0 6.7 4.7 2.3 4 3.3 4.4 3.1 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Halcones Negros down, Acambaro across0–5 goals a side shown (92.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,520 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Halcones Negros at home: 3.33 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 3). Acambaro away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Halcones Negros, 1.43 for Acambaro. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

HALCONES NEGROS

LWLWWW1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 7–0 · 5–0 · 3–2

ACAMBARO

WDWLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 5–2

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	7	+12	20
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	7	+11	18
3	Halcones Negros	7	+14	14
4	Acambaro	7	+11	13
5	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	8	+1	12
6	Calor de San Pedro	7	0	12
7	Guerreros del Pacifico	6	−4	8
8	Real Refineros	7	−2	7
9	Ciervos	7	−19	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	7	−24	0