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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Liga Premier Serie A › FC Santiago v Real Refineros

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FC Santiago v Real Refineros

FC Santiago
02:05Upcoming
Real Refineros

Liga Premier Serie A · TUE 27 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC SantiagoDrawReal Refineros
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:05
Before kick-off · Match result · FC Santiago 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Santiago are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Santiago 67%, draw 19%, Real Refineros 15%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Santiago v Real RefinerosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Santiago win67%
Draw19%
Real Refineros win15%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 02:05

RoundApertura · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Santiago

Real Refineros

9Days since last match10

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc santiago winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
67% The market–
Us67%

We make FC Santiago a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Santiago v Real Refineros2.35 – 0.97
Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 11 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W0 D4 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Santiago win67%––
Draw19%––
Real Refineros win15%––
Over 2.5 goals63%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals83%––
Over 3.5 goals42%––
FC Santiago or draw85%––
FC Santiago clean sheet39%––
Real Refineros clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.8%
0123450 4.3 3.7 1 8.7 8.4 4.0 2 9.8 9.1 4.4 3 7.5 6.9 3.4 4 4.5 4.1 5 2.3 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Santiago down, Real Refineros across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 11 Sept

FC SANTIAGO

LWLDWW0–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

REAL REFINEROS

DDDLLD0–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–3