FC Santiago v Real Apodaca prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:05

FC Santiago 3–0 Real Apodaca FC SANTIAGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Santiago win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Santiago are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Santiago 53%, draw 25%, Real Apodaca 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on FC Santiago v Real ApodacaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Santiago win53%

Draw25%

Real Apodaca win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Santiago

Real Apodaca

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FC Santiago	7	+4	11
9	Real Apodaca	7	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc santiago winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make FC Santiago a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Santiago v Real Apodaca~~1.64 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~5 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Santiago win

Published at 50%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Santiago win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Real Apodaca win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
FC Santiago or draw	77%	–	–
FC Santiago clean sheet	39%	–	–
Real Apodaca clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 8.0 7.2 3.6 1 12.0 11.6 5.5 2 9.7 9.1 4.4 3 5.4 5.0 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Santiago down, Real Apodaca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,520 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Santiago at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Apodaca away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for FC Santiago, 0.97 for Real Apodaca. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCS 3–0 REA · REA 2–2 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 5 Sept

FC SANTIAGO

WLWLDW3–0 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

REAL APODACA

LLWLLL2–3 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vaqueros Reynosa	7	+4	16
2	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	+8	15
3	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	7	+5	13
4	Acatlan	7	+2	13
5	FC Santiago	7	+4	11
6	Correcaminos UAT II	7	+1	11
7	Guerreros	6	−2	8
8	Atlético Saltillo	7	−7	8
9	Real Apodaca	7	−6	4
10	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2