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Dragones de Oaxaca v Guerreros del Pacifico

Dragones de Oaxaca

5–1Full time

Guerreros del Pacifico

Liga Premier Serie A · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 05:57

Dragones de Oaxaca 5–1 Guerreros del Pacifico DRAGONES DE OAXACA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dragones de Oaxaca win~~56%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.208

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dragones de Oaxaca win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dragones de Oaxaca was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
1′KICK-OFF Dragones de Oaxaca v Guerreros del Pacifico
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Dragones de Oaxaca 1–0 Guerreros del Pacifico
7′Dragones de Oaxaca find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–7
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Dragones de Oaxaca win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
9′We published Dragones de Oaxaca at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
35′A goal for Dragones de Oaxaca on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Guerreros del Pacifico
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Dragones de Oaxaca win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
36′We published Dragones de Oaxaca at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Dragones de Oaxaca win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Guerreros del Pacifico
46′SECOND HALF Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Guerreros del Pacifico
47′47′ and it is 3–0: Dragones de Oaxaca have scored. 3–0 · 99–0–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Dragones de Oaxaca 3–0 Guerreros del Pacifico
48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–0–0
49′We published Dragones de Oaxaca at 56%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′A red card for Guerreros del Pacifico on 55′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Guerreros del Pacifico
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Dragones de Oaxaca 4–0 Guerreros del Pacifico
60′Dragones de Oaxaca find the net on 58′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
62′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Dragones de Oaxaca 4–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
72′A goal for Guerreros del Pacifico on 71′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
74′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
83′83′ and it is 5–1: Dragones de Oaxaca have scored. 5–1 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Dragones de Oaxaca 5–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
85′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dragones de Oaxaca 5–1 Guerreros del Pacifico
FTDragones de Oaxaca 5–1 Guerreros del Pacifico · Dragones de Oaxaca win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 02:30 · locked at kick-off

Dragones de Oaxaca win56%

Draw24%

Guerreros del Pacifico win21%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 03:05

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dragones de Oaxaca

Guerreros del Pacifico

9Days since last match10

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
13	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dragones de oaxaca winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 02:30 · locked at kick-off

56% The market63%

Us56%

~~Market~~63%

We make Dragones de Oaxaca a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dragones de oaxaca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dragones de Oaxaca win	56%	63%	−7
Draw	24%	21%	+2
Guerreros del Pacifico win	21%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Dragones de Oaxaca or draw	79%	84%	−5
Dragones de Oaxaca clean sheet	40%	–	–
Guerreros del Pacifico clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 7.5 6.6 3.2 1 11.8 10.9 5.1 2 10.0 9.0 4.3 3 5.9 5.3 2.5 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dragones de Oaxaca down, Guerreros del Pacifico across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,517 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.7% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dragones de Oaxaca at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Guerreros del Pacifico away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Dragones de Oaxaca, 0.95 for Guerreros del Pacifico. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Liga Premier Serie A since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

DRAGONES DE OAXACA

WWDWDW2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 3–2

GUERREROS DEL PACIFICO

WLLWD2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	7	+12	19
2	Vaqueros Reynosa	7	+4	16
3	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	+8	14
4	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
5	Halcones Negros	7	+14	13
6	Acambaro	7	+11	13
7	Acatlan	7	+2	13
8	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	7	+5	12
9	Correcaminos UAT II	7	+1	11
10	FC Santiago	7	+4	10
11	Calor de San Pedro	6	+1	10
12	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	7	0	8
13	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
14	Guerreros	6	−2	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	7	−7	7
16	Real Refineros	7	−2	6
17	Real Apodaca	7	−6	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	7	−19	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	7	−24	0