Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Liga Premier Serie A › Correcaminos UAT II v Acambaro

Back
Mexico flag

Correcaminos UAT II v Acambaro

Correcaminos UAT II
0–2Full time
Acambaro

Liga Premier Serie A · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Correcaminos UAT II 0–2 Acambaro ACAMBARO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Acambaro win46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Acambaro win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Acambaro was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–24–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Correcaminos UAT II v Acambaro
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Correcaminos UAT II 0–0 Acambaro
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Correcaminos UAT II 0–0 Acambaro
  6. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Acambaro win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  7. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Acambaro win 37%)
  8. 53′Acambaro score on 52′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  9. 53′We published Acambaro at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  10. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Correcaminos UAT II 0–1 Acambaro
  11. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Acambaro win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
  12. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Acambaro win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 40%)
  13. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Acambaro win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  14. 67′We published Acambaro at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  15. 76′We published Acambaro at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  16. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Acambaro win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  17. 82′We published Acambaro at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  18. 88′We published Acambaro at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  19. 90′Acambaro find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  20. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Acambaro win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  21. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Correcaminos UAT II 0–2 Acambaro
  22. 92′We published Acambaro at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  23. FTFULL TIME Correcaminos UAT II 0–2 Acambaro
  24. FTCorrecaminos UAT II 0–2 Acambaro · Acambaro win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Acambaro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Correcaminos UAT II 31%, draw 23%, Acambaro 46%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Correcaminos UAT II v AcambaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Correcaminos UAT II win31%
Draw23%
Acambaro win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundApertura · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Correcaminos UAT II

Acambaro

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · acambaro winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
46% The market–
Us46%

We make Acambaro a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Correcaminos UAT II v Acambaro1.37 – 1.74
Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 13 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:05
Our probability · Acambaro win

Published at 39%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Correcaminos UAT II win31%––
Draw23%––
Acambaro win46%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score60%––
Over 1.5 goals81%––
Over 3.5 goals38%––
Correcaminos UAT II or draw54%––
Correcaminos UAT II clean sheet19%––
Acambaro clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 5.1 7.8 6.8 3.9 1 6.2 10.6 8.8 5.1 2.3 2 4.3 7.0 5.9 3.4 3 2.0 3.3 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Correcaminos UAT II down, Acambaro across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 13 Sept

CORRECAMINOS UAT II

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2

ACAMBARO

DWLLWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 6–0