Ciervos v Cañoneros Marina prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:01

Ciervos 3–1 Cañoneros Marina CIERVOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ciervos win~~52%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.349

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ciervos win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ciervos was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Ciervos v Cañoneros Marina
19′A goal for Ciervos on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Ciervos 1–0 Cañoneros Marina
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Ciervos win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
21′Ciervos score on 21′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–3
21′We published Ciervos at 52%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ciervos 2–0 Cañoneros Marina
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Ciervos win: 52% at kick-off, 91% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ciervos win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Ciervos 2–0 Cañoneros Marina
46′SECOND HALF Ciervos 2–0 Cañoneros Marina
53′Ciervos find the net on 52′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Ciervos 3–0 Cañoneros Marina
54′We published Ciervos at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
64′We published Ciervos at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′A goal for Cañoneros Marina on 77′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Ciervos 3–1 Cañoneros Marina
77′PENALTY MISSED · 77' Cañoneros Marina
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Ciervos 3–1 Cañoneros Marina
FTCiervos 3–1 Cañoneros Marina · Ciervos win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ciervos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ciervos 52%, draw 22%, Cañoneros Marina 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Ciervos v Cañoneros MarinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ciervos win52%

Draw22%

Cañoneros Marina win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:30

RoundApertura · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ciervos

Cañoneros Marina

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Ciervos	7	−19	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	7	−24	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ciervos winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

52% The market39%

Us52%

~~Market~~39%

We make Ciervos a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ciervos v Cañoneros Marina~~1.92 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 2 v 0~~9 v 10

~~The market · Ciervos win~~39% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ciervos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ciervos win	52%	39%	+13
Draw	22%	22%	0
Cañoneros Marina win	26%	39%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	61%	75%	−14
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Ciervos or draw	74%	61%	+13
Ciervos clean sheet	29%	–	–
Cañoneros Marina clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.6 5.4 3.5 1 7.9 9.9 6.3 2.7 2 7.4 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.8 5.8 3.7 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ciervos down, Cañoneros Marina across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,519 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ciervos at home: 0.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cañoneros Marina away: 0.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Ciervos, 1.28 for Cañoneros Marina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAN 1–1 CIE · CIE 1–3 CAN · CAN 5–2 CIE · CIE 1–0 CAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 5 Sept

CIERVOS

LLLDLL0–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–5 · 2–5

CAÑONEROS MARINA

LLLLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–7

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	7	+12	20
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	7	+11	18
3	Halcones Negros	7	+14	14
4	Acambaro	7	+11	13
5	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	8	+1	12
6	Calor de San Pedro	7	0	12
7	Guerreros del Pacifico	6	−4	8
8	Real Refineros	7	−2	7
9	Ciervos	7	−19	2
10	Cañoneros Marina	7	−24	0