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Cañoneros Marina v Calor de San Pedro

Cañoneros Marina

1–7Full time

Calor de San Pedro

Liga Premier Serie A · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Cañoneros Marina 1–7 Calor de San Pedro CALOR DE SAN PEDRO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Calor de San Pedro win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Calor de San Pedro win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Cañoneros Marina v Calor de San Pedro
2′Much as we predicted: Calor de San Pedro was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Cañoneros Marina 0–1 Calor de San Pedro
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cañoneros Marina 0–2 Calor de San Pedro
22′21′ and it is 0–2: Calor de San Pedro have scored. 0–2 · 2–6–92
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Calor de San Pedro win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
23′21′ and it is 0–2: Calor de San Pedro have scored. 0–2 · 2–6–92
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Calor de San Pedro win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Calor de San Pedro win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cañoneros Marina 0–3 Calor de San Pedro
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Calor de San Pedro win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Calor de San Pedro win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
45′⚽ GOAL · 14' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
45′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
46′SECOND HALF Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
46′⚽ GOAL · 14' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
46′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
46′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
46′⚽ GOAL · 40' Cañoneros Marina 1–3 Calor de San Pedro
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cañoneros Marina 1–4 Calor de San Pedro
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Cañoneros Marina 1–5 Calor de San Pedro
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Cañoneros Marina 1–6 Calor de San Pedro
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Cañoneros Marina 1–7 Calor de San Pedro
FTFULL TIME Cañoneros Marina 1–7 Calor de San Pedro
FTCañoneros Marina 1–7 Calor de San Pedro · Calor de San Pedro win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cañoneros Marina win26%

Draw24%

Calor de San Pedro win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calor de san pedro winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Calor de San Pedro a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cañoneros Marina win	26%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Calor de San Pedro win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Cañoneros Marina or draw	51%	–	–
Cañoneros Marina clean sheet	20%	–	–
Calor de San Pedro clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.6 10.1 8.3 4.7 2.1 1 7.0 11.3 9.0 5.0 2.2 2 4.1 6.4 5.1 2.8 3 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cañoneros Marina down, Calor de San Pedro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,509 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cañoneros Marina at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Calor de San Pedro away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Cañoneros Marina, 1.67 for Calor de San Pedro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

CAÑONEROS MARINA

LLLLLL0–8 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3

CALOR DE SAN PEDRO

LLDWLW1–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 0–7 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	+12	18
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
3	Acatlan	6	+4	13
4	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
5	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
6	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	+6	11
7	Halcones Negros	6	+13	10
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
10	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	0	7
12	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
13	Guerreros	6	−2	7
14	Calor de San Pedro	5	−5	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	6	−1	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	−18	0