Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Liga Premier Serie A › Calor de San Pedro v Guerreros del Pacifico

Back
Mexico flag

Calor de San Pedro v Guerreros del Pacifico

Calor de San Pedro
2–4Full time
Guerreros del Pacifico

Liga Premier Serie A · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30
Calor de San Pedro 2–4 Guerreros del Pacifico CALOR DE SAN PEDRO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Calor de San Pedro win56%
The market said27%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.968
The market’s Brier score0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Calor de San Pedro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Calor de San Pedro 56%, draw 22%, Guerreros del Pacifico 22%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Calor de San Pedro v Guerreros del PacificoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Calor de San Pedro win56%
Draw22%
Guerreros del Pacifico win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 22:30

RoundApertura · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Calor de San Pedro

Guerreros del Pacifico

5Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Calor de San Pedro7012
8Guerreros del Pacifico7−49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · calor de san pedro winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 17 Oct 01:30 · locked at kick-off
56% The market27%
Us56%
Market27%

We make Calor de San Pedro a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 29 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Calor de San Pedro v Guerreros del Pacifico1.92 – 1.10
Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 12 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 12 v 96 v 8
The market · Calor de San Pedro win27% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50%60% 16 OCT 00:0021 OCT 22:10
Our probability · Calor de San Pedro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Calor de San Pedro win56%27%+29
Draw22%21%+1
Guerreros del Pacifico win22%52%−30
Over 2.5 goals57%68%−11
Both teams to score55%69%−14
Over 1.5 goals79%86%−7
Over 3.5 goals35%44%−9
Calor de San Pedro or draw78%48%+30
Calor de San Pedro clean sheet34%––
Guerreros del Pacifico clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 5.7 5.6 3.1 1 9.5 10.3 5.5 2.1 2 8.8 9.3 5.0 3 5.6 5.9 3.2 4 2.8 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Calor de San Pedro down, Guerreros del Pacifico across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 12 Sept

CALOR DE SAN PEDRO

DWLWWL0–0 · 4–0 · 0–7 · 3–2 · 7–1 · 1–2

GUERREROS DEL PACIFICO

LLWDLD0–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 3–3

The table

2026/27 · group 2
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Artesanos Metepec8+1221
2Dragones de Oaxaca8+1119
3Acambaro8+1716
4Halcones Negros8+814
5Delfines Coatzacoalcos8+112
6Calor de San Pedro7012
7Real Refineros8−29
8Guerreros del Pacifico7−49
9Ciervos8−175
10Cañoneros Marina8−260

The competition's standings before kick-off.