Atlético Saltillo v Acatlan prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:35

Atlético Saltillo 2–3 Acatlan ATLÉTICO SALTILLO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Saltillo win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.852

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Saltillo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Saltillo 53%, draw 19%, Acatlan 27%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Saltillo v AcatlanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Saltillo win53%

Draw19%

Acatlan win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:00

RoundApertura · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Saltillo

Acatlan

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Premier Serie A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Acatlan	7	+2	13
8	Atlético Saltillo	7	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético saltillo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Atlético Saltillo a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Saltillo v Acatlan~~2.36 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Saltillo win	53%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Acatlan win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Atlético Saltillo or draw	73%	–	–
Atlético Saltillo clean sheet	21%	–	–
Acatlan clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.2 3.2 2.6 1 4.6 7.2 5.6 3.1 2 5.3 8.0 6.3 3.5 3 4.1 6.2 4.9 2.7 4 2.4 3.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Saltillo down, Acatlan across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,519 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Atlético Saltillo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Acatlan away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Atlético Saltillo, 1.65 for Acatlan. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A this season · since 6 Sept

ATLÉTICO SALTILLO

WWLDLL3–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

ACATLAN

LWDWWL0–4 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vaqueros Reynosa	7	+4	16
2	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	+8	15
3	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	7	+5	13
4	Acatlan	7	+2	13
5	FC Santiago	7	+4	11
6	Correcaminos UAT II	7	+1	11
7	Guerreros	6	−2	8
8	Atlético Saltillo	7	−7	8
9	Real Apodaca	7	−6	4
10	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2