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Acatlan v Mineros de Fresnillo

Acatlan

2–4Full time

Mineros de Fresnillo

Liga Premier Serie A · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Acatlan 2–4 Mineros de Fresnillo MINEROS DE FRESNILLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mineros de Fresnillo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mineros de Fresnillo win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mineros de Fresnillo 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 38–23–40
1′KICK-OFF Acatlan v Mineros de Fresnillo
2′Little has changed for our model: Mineros de Fresnillo 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 38–23–40
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Acatlan 0–1 Mineros de Fresnillo
22′Mineros de Fresnillo find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Mineros de Fresnillo win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Mineros de Fresnillo win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Mineros de Fresnillo win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Mineros de Fresnillo win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
24′Mineros de Fresnillo find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Mineros de Fresnillo win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Acatlan 0–2 Mineros de Fresnillo
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Acatlan 0–3 Mineros de Fresnillo
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Mineros de Fresnillo win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
45′HALF-TIME Acatlan 0–3 Mineros de Fresnillo
46′SECOND HALF Acatlan 0–3 Mineros de Fresnillo
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Acatlan 1–3 Mineros de Fresnillo
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Acatlan 2–3 Mineros de Fresnillo
90′⚽ GOAL · 98' Acatlan 2–4 Mineros de Fresnillo
90′🟥 RED CARD · 99' Mineros de Fresnillo
FTAcatlan 2–4 Mineros de Fresnillo · Mineros de Fresnillo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Acatlan win38%

Draw22%

Mineros de Fresnillo win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mineros de fresnillo winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Mineros de Fresnillo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Acatlan win	38%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Mineros de Fresnillo win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Acatlan or draw	60%	–	–
Acatlan clean sheet	18%	–	–
Mineros de Fresnillo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 5.6 4.9 2.9 1 5.4 9.3 7.9 4.6 2.1 2 4.7 7.8 6.6 3.9 3 2.7 4.5 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Acatlan down, Mineros de Fresnillo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,509 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Acatlan at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mineros de Fresnillo away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Acatlan, 1.76 for Mineros de Fresnillo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MIN 1–0 ACA · ACA 2–2 MIN

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

ACATLAN

WLWDWW3–0 · 0–4 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

MINEROS DE FRESNILLO

DDWWLW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	6	+12	18
2	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
3	Acatlan	6	+4	13
4	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
5	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
6	Mineros de Fresnillo	6	+6	11
7	Halcones Negros	6	+13	10
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
10	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
11	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	6	0	7
12	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
13	Guerreros	6	−2	7
14	Calor de San Pedro	5	−5	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	6	−1	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	6	−18	0