Acambaro v Ciervos prediction · Liga Premier Serie A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Acambaro 5–2 Ciervos ACAMBARO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Acambaro win~~83%

~~The market said~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.043

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.022

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Acambaro win at 83%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Acambaro 83% before kick-off, 85% now. 0–0 · 85–10–5
1′KICK-OFF Acambaro v Ciervos
14′Little has changed for our model: Acambaro 83% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 82–12–6
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Acambaro 1–0 Ciervos
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Acambaro 1–1 Ciervos
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Acambaro 2–1 Ciervos
34′32′ and it is 2–1: Acambaro have scored. 2–1 · 92–6–2
37′32′ and it is 2–1: Acambaro have scored. 2–1 · 92–6–2
45′HALF-TIME Acambaro 2–1 Ciervos
45′⚽ GOAL · 25' Acambaro 2–1 Ciervos
45′⚽ GOAL · 27' Acambaro 2–1 Ciervos
45′⚽ GOAL · 32' Acambaro 2–1 Ciervos
46′SECOND HALF Acambaro 2–1 Ciervos
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Acambaro 3–1 Ciervos
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Acambaro 4–1 Ciervos
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Acambaro 4–2 Ciervos
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Acambaro 5–2 Ciervos
FTAcambaro 5–2 Ciervos · Acambaro win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Acambaro win83%

Draw10%

Ciervos win6%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Acambaro

Ciervos

9Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · acambaro winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

83% The market88%

Us83%

~~Market~~88%

We make Acambaro a 83% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · acambaro win The market, margin stripped

Published at 84%, 83% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Acambaro win	83%	88%	−5
Draw	10%	9%	+2
Ciervos win	6%	3%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	38%	+15
Over 1.5 goals	91%	90%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Acambaro or draw	94%	97%	−3
Acambaro clean sheet	45%	–	–
Ciervos clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.1%

0123450 1 5.6 4.6 2 8.7 6.9 2.9 3 9.1 7.2 3.0 4 7.5 5.9 2.4 5 5.2 4.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Acambaro down, Ciervos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,513 Liga Premier Serie A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Premier Serie A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Acambaro at home: 3.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Ciervos away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.40 goals for Acambaro, 0.81 for Ciervos. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Premier Serie A

ACAMBARO

WWDWLL8–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3

CIERVOS

LLLLDL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Artesanos Metepec	7	+12	19
2	Mineros de Fresnillo	7	+8	14
3	Dragones de Oaxaca	6	+7	14
4	Halcones Negros	7	+14	13
5	Vaqueros Reynosa	6	+3	13
6	Acatlan	7	+2	13
7	La Tribu de Cd. Juarez	6	+7	12
8	Acambaro	6	+8	10
9	Calor de San Pedro	6	+1	10
10	Delfines Coatzacoalcos	7	0	8
11	Correcaminos UAT II	6	0	8
12	FC Santiago	6	+2	7
13	Guerreros del Pacifico	5	0	7
14	Guerreros	6	−2	7
15	Atlético Saltillo	6	−6	7
16	Real Refineros	7	−2	6
17	Real Apodaca	6	−5	4
18	Héroes de Zaci	6	−9	2
19	Ciervos	6	−16	1
20	Cañoneros Marina	7	−24	0