UNAM Pumas U21 v Tigres UANL U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

UNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Tigres UANL U21 UNAM PUMAS U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UNAM Pumas U21 win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UNAM Pumas U21 win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: UNAM Pumas U21 was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF UNAM Pumas U21 v Tigres UANL U21
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was UNAM Pumas U21 win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME UNAM Pumas U21 0–0 Tigres UANL U21
46′SECOND HALF UNAM Pumas U21 0–0 Tigres UANL U21
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' UNAM Pumas U21 win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–45–25
57′We said UNAM Pumas U21 at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
60′A goal for UNAM Pumas U21 on 59′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–19–4
60′We published UNAM Pumas U21 at 41%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' UNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Tigres UANL U21
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' UNAM Pumas U21 win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' UNAM Pumas U21 win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 48%)
66′We published UNAM Pumas U21 at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' UNAM Pumas U21 win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
75′We published UNAM Pumas U21 at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We published UNAM Pumas U21 at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' UNAM Pumas U21 win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
88′We published UNAM Pumas U21 at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME UNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Tigres UANL U21
FTUNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Tigres UANL U21 · UNAM Pumas U21 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UNAM Pumas U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UNAM Pumas U21 41%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL U21 31%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on UNAM Pumas U21 v Tigres UANL U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

UNAM Pumas U21 win41%

Draw28%

Tigres UANL U21 win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UNAM Pumas U21

Tigres UANL U21

3Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	UNAM Pumas U21	13	−1	16
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unam pumas u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make UNAM Pumas U21 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UNAM Pumas U21 v Tigres UANL U21~~1.47 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~14 v 16

~~The market · UNAM Pumas U21 win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UNAM Pumas U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UNAM Pumas U21 win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Tigres UANL U21 win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
UNAM Pumas U21 or draw	69%	73%	−4
UNAM Pumas U21 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Tigres UANL U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 7.9 7.0 5.2 2.2 1 8.3 13.2 7.6 3.2 2 7.0 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.4 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UNAM Pumas U21 down, Tigres UANL U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 452 Liga MX U21 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UNAM Pumas U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tigres UANL U21 away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for UNAM Pumas U21, 1.27 for Tigres UANL U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TIG 4–0 UNA · TIG 0–2 UNA · UNA 1–2 TIG · UNA 1–5 TIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 13 Sept

UNAM PUMAS U21

DWDWWD0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

TIGRES UANL U21

WDDLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	13	+21	37
2	Club Leon U21	13	+10	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	13	0	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	−4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	−4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	−4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
10	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
11	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
12	Juarez U21	14	−3	19
13	Monterrey U21	12	+2	16
14	UNAM Pumas U21	13	−1	16
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6