UNAM Pumas U21 v Cruz Azul U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

UNAM Pumas U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21 UNAM PUMAS U21 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UNAM Pumas U21 win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.456

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UNAM Pumas U21 win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF UNAM Pumas U21 v Cruz Azul U21
2′Much as we predicted: UNAM Pumas U21 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
5′Much as we predicted: UNAM Pumas U21 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' UNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Cruz Azul U21
45′HALF-TIME UNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Cruz Azul U21
46′SECOND HALF UNAM Pumas U21 1–0 Cruz Azul U21
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' UNAM Pumas U21 2–0 Cruz Azul U21
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' UNAM Pumas U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21
FTFULL TIME UNAM Pumas U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21
FTUNAM Pumas U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21 · UNAM Pumas U21 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

UNAM Pumas U21 win45%

Draw28%

Cruz Azul U21 win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

UNAM Pumas U21

Cruz Azul U21

14Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
17	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unam pumas u21 winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make UNAM Pumas U21 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · unam pumas u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UNAM Pumas U21 win	45%	39%	+6
Draw	28%	28%	0
Cruz Azul U21 win	27%	33%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−3
UNAM Pumas U21 or draw	73%	67%	+6
UNAM Pumas U21 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cruz Azul U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.6 7.2 4.6 1 10.0 13.2 6.8 2.5 2 8.2 9.1 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UNAM Pumas U21 down, Cruz Azul U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 429 Liga MX U21 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UNAM Pumas U21 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul U21 away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for UNAM Pumas U21, 1.11 for Cruz Azul U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNA 4–2 CRU · CRU 1–1 UNA

Form · last six in Liga MX U21

UNAM PUMAS U21

LLDDWD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

CRUZ AZUL U21

DLWLLL2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+11	27
2	Club Leon U21	11	+8	24
3	Club Tijuana U21	11	+5	19
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	16
6	Puebla U21	11	+3	15
7	Atlante U21	11	−4	14
8	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
9	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
10	Atlas U21	11	+1	12
11	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
12	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12
13	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
14	Juarez U21	11	−3	11
15	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10
16	Tigres UANL U21	11	−9	9
17	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6