Toluca U21 v Club Tijuana U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 18:31

Toluca U21 5–0 Club Tijuana U21 TOLUCA U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Toluca U21 win~~51%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.331

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Toluca U21 win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Toluca U21 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
1′KICK-OFF Toluca U21 v Club Tijuana U21
41′Toluca U21 find the net on 40′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Toluca U21 1–0 Club Tijuana U21
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Toluca U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
42′We said Toluca U21 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–6
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′We said Toluca U21 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Toluca U21 2–0 Club Tijuana U21
46′SECOND HALF Toluca U21 2–0 Club Tijuana U21
47′A goal for Toluca U21 on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Toluca U21 2–0 Club Tijuana U21
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Toluca U21 win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
52′Toluca U21 score on 52′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Toluca U21 3–0 Club Tijuana U21
53′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
56′We said Toluca U21 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′Toluca U21 find the net on 61′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Toluca U21 4–0 Club Tijuana U21
62′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′A goal for Toluca U21 on 89′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Toluca U21 5–0 Club Tijuana U21
FTFULL TIME Toluca U21 5–0 Club Tijuana U21
FTToluca U21 5–0 Club Tijuana U21 · Toluca U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Toluca U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Toluca U21 51%, draw 26%, Club Tijuana U21 23%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Toluca U21 v Club Tijuana U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Toluca U21 win51%

Draw26%

Club Tijuana U21 win23%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Toluca U21

Club Tijuana U21

4Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · toluca u21 winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make Toluca U21 a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Toluca U21 v Club Tijuana U21~~1.73 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 34 v 20~~1 v 5

~~The market · Toluca U21 win~~53% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Toluca U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toluca U21 win	51%	53%	−2
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Club Tijuana U21 win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Toluca U21 or draw	77%	78%	−1
Toluca U21 clean sheet	34%	–	–
Club Tijuana U21 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 5.6 3.6 1 9.3 12.1 6.1 2.3 2 8.8 9.6 5.3 3 5.1 5.5 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Toluca U21 down, Club Tijuana U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 444 Liga MX U21 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Toluca U21 at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Club Tijuana U21 away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Toluca U21, 1.10 for Club Tijuana U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOL 4–2 CLU · CLU 2–0 TOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept

TOLUCA U21

WWWWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

CLUB TIJUANA U21

DWLDLD3–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	13	+9	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Atl. San Luis U21	13	−3	21
5	Club Tijuana U21	12	+4	20
6	Club America U21	12	+3	19
7	Juarez U21	13	−2	19
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Atlante U21	13	−5	18
10	Puebla U21	12	+2	17
11	Monterrey U21	11	+4	16
12	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
13	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
14	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6