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Tigres UANL U21 v Toluca U21

Tigres UANL U21

1–2Full time

Toluca U21

Liga MX U21 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Tigres UANL U21 1–2 Toluca U21 TIGRES UANL U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigres UANL U21 win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.615

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tigres UANL U21 win42%

Draw28%

Toluca U21 win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tigres uanl u21 winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make Tigres UANL U21 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tigres uanl u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres UANL U21 win	42%	36%	+5
Draw	28%	28%	0
Toluca U21 win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Tigres UANL U21 or draw	70%	64%	+6
Tigres UANL U21 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Toluca U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.4 7.4 5.1 2.1 1 9.2 13.4 7.3 2.9 2 7.4 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres UANL U21 down, Toluca U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 423 Liga MX U21 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres UANL U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Toluca U21 away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Tigres UANL U21, 1.19 for Toluca U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TIG 2–2 TOL · TOL 1–1 TIG

Form · last six in Liga MX U21

TIGRES UANL U21

LLDWDD2–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

TOLUCA U21

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	10	+10	24
2	Club Leon U21	10	+7	21
3	Club Tijuana U21	10	+6	19
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	10	+2	16
5	Puebla U21	10	+4	15
6	Monterrey U21	9	+5	13
7	Club America U21	10	0	13
8	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
9	Atlas U21	10	+3	12
10	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
11	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12
12	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
13	Atlante U21	10	−5	11
14	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10
15	Tigres UANL U21	10	−8	9
16	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8
17	Juarez U21	10	−4	8
18	Queretaro U21	9	−6	6