Tigres UANL U21 v Club Leon U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 23:00

Tigres UANL U21 3–1 Club Leon U21 TIGRES UANL U21 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tigres UANL U21 win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tigres UANL U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tigres UANL U21 44%, draw 28%, Club Leon U21 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Tigres UANL U21 v Club Leon U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Tigres UANL U21 win44%

Draw28%

Club Leon U21 win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tigres UANL U21

Club Leon U21

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Club Leon U21	12	+11	31
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tigres uanl u21 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Tigres UANL U21 a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigres UANL U21 v Club Leon U21~~1.46 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 31~~16 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tigres UANL U21 win

Published at 43%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres UANL U21 win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Club Leon U21 win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Tigres UANL U21 or draw	73%	–	–
Tigres UANL U21 clean sheet	34%	–	–
Club Leon U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.0 7.5 4.7 1 10.3 13.4 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.9 4.9 3 4.0 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres UANL U21 down, Club Leon U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 441 Liga MX U21 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres UANL U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Club Leon U21 away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Tigres UANL U21, 1.10 for Club Leon U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CLU 2–0 TIG · TIG 2–1 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept

TIGRES UANL U21

DWDDLW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 5–2

CLUB LEON U21

DWWWWD1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	12	+11	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	12	+4	20
5	Club America U21	12	+3	19
6	Juarez U21	12	0	19
7	Atl. San Luis U21	12	−4	18
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Puebla U21	12	+2	17
10	Monterrey U21	11	+4	16
11	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
12	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
13	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
14	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	−8	10
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9
18	Queretaro U21	11	−9	6