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Santos Laguna U21 v UNAM Pumas U21

Santos Laguna U21

1–1After penalties

UNAM Pumas U21

Liga MX U21 · WED 21 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 21 Oct 20:30

Santos Laguna U21 1–1 UNAM Pumas U21 SANTOS LAGUNA U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Santos Laguna U21 win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.793

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.799

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Santos Laguna U21 won 3–1 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santos Laguna U21 win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Santos Laguna U21 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Santos Laguna U21 v UNAM Pumas U21
23′UNAM Pumas U21 score on 23′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Santos Laguna U21 0–1 UNAM Pumas U21
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Santos Laguna U21 win: 45% at kick-off, 17% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' UNAM Pumas U21 win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Santos Laguna U21 win 41%)
24′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–59
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Santos Laguna U21 win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
34′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
45′HALF-TIME Santos Laguna U21 0–1 UNAM Pumas U21
46′SECOND HALF Santos Laguna U21 0–1 UNAM Pumas U21
51′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
55′Santos Laguna U21 find the net on 54′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–47–22
55′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–47–22
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Santos Laguna U21 1–1 UNAM Pumas U21
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Santos Laguna U21 win: 45% at kick-off, 32% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was UNAM Pumas U21 win 68%)
60′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Santos Laguna U21 win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Santos Laguna U21 win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Santos Laguna U21 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 51%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
91′We said Santos Laguna U21 at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Santos Laguna U21 1–1 UNAM Pumas U21
FTSantos Laguna U21 1–1 UNAM Pumas U21 after 90 minutes, as graded · Santos Laguna U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santos Laguna U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santos Laguna U21 45%, draw 28%, UNAM Pumas U21 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Santos Laguna U21 v UNAM Pumas U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Santos Laguna U21 win45%

Draw28%

UNAM Pumas U21 win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santos Laguna U21

UNAM Pumas U21

4Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
14	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santos laguna u21 winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Santos Laguna U21 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santos Laguna U21 v UNAM Pumas U21~~1.48 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~14 v 13

~~The market · Santos Laguna U21 win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santos Laguna U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santos Laguna U21 win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
UNAM Pumas U21 win	27%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Santos Laguna U21 or draw	73%	70%	+3
Santos Laguna U21 clean sheet	33%	–	–
UNAM Pumas U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.7 7.3 4.6 1 10.1 13.3 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santos Laguna U21 down, UNAM Pumas U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 444 Liga MX U21 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santos Laguna U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). UNAM Pumas U21 away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Santos Laguna U21, 1.10 for UNAM Pumas U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UNA 1–3 SAN · SAN 1–1 UNA · UNA 3–2 SAN · SAN 1–2 UNA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 6 Sept

SANTOS LAGUNA U21

LDLWDW0–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

UNAM PUMAS U21

DDWDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	13	+9	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Atl. San Luis U21	13	−3	21
5	Club Tijuana U21	12	+4	20
6	Club America U21	12	+3	19
7	Juarez U21	13	−2	19
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Atlante U21	13	−5	18
10	Puebla U21	12	+2	17
11	Monterrey U21	11	+4	16
12	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
13	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
14	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6