Queretaro U21 v Cruz Azul U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Queretaro U21DrawCruz Azul U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Queretaro U21 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Queretaro U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Queretaro U21 38%, draw 28%, Cruz Azul U21 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Queretaro U21 v Cruz Azul U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Queretaro U21 win38%

Draw28%

Cruz Azul U21 win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Queretaro U21

Cruz Azul U21

5Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · queretaro u21 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 04:22 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Queretaro U21 a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Queretaro U21 v Cruz Azul U21~~1.38 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 6 v 19~~18 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Queretaro U21 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queretaro U21 win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cruz Azul U21 win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Queretaro U21 or draw	66%	–	–
Queretaro U21 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Cruz Azul U21 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.2 7.8 5.8 2.5 1 8.4 13.4 7.9 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.3 3 3.0 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queretaro U21 down, Cruz Azul U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 455 Liga MX U21 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Queretaro U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul U21 away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Queretaro U21, 1.29 for Cruz Azul U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~QUE 1–1 CRU · CRU 1–0 QUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 11 Sept

QUERETARO U21

LLWLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–3

CRUZ AZUL U21

LLLLDL1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	14	+24	40
2	Club Leon U21	14	+7	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	14	−3	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	−4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	−4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	−4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
10	Monterrey U21	13	+5	19
11	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
12	UNAM Pumas U21	14	0	19
13	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
14	Juarez U21	14	−3	19
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	14	−7	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6