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Queretaro U21 v Atlante U21

Queretaro U21

2–3Full time

Atlante U21

Liga MX U21 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Queretaro U21 2–3 Atlante U21 QUERETARO U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Queretaro U21 win~~46%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Queretaro U21 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Queretaro U21 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Queretaro U21 v Atlante U21
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Queretaro U21 0–1 Atlante U21
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Queretaro U21 1–1 Atlante U21
23′17′ and it is 1–1: Queretaro U21 have scored. 1–1 · 43–30–27
45′HALF-TIME Queretaro U21 1–1 Atlante U21
46′SECOND HALF Queretaro U21 1–1 Atlante U21
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Queretaro U21 1–2 Atlante U21
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Queretaro U21 2–2 Atlante U21
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Queretaro U21 2–3 Atlante U21
FTFULL TIME Queretaro U21 2–3 Atlante U21
FTQueretaro U21 2–3 Atlante U21 · Queretaro U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Queretaro U21 win46%

Draw27%

Atlante U21 win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · queretaro u21 winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

46% The market41%

Us46%

~~Market~~41%

We make Queretaro U21 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · queretaro u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queretaro U21 win	46%	41%	+5
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Atlante U21 win	27%	33%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	59%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Queretaro U21 or draw	73%	67%	+5
Queretaro U21 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Atlante U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.4 6.2 4.3 1 8.8 12.6 6.8 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.3 4.9 2.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queretaro U21 down, Atlante U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 425 Liga MX U21 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Queretaro U21 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atlante U21 away: 1.00 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Queretaro U21, 1.19 for Atlante U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2025

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21

QUERETARO U21

LLLLLW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 4–2

ATLANTE U21

WLLDDW3–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 5–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+11	27
2	Club Leon U21	11	+8	24
3	Club Tijuana U21	10	+6	19
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	10	+2	16
5	Puebla U21	11	+3	15
6	Monterrey U21	9	+5	13
7	Club America U21	10	0	13
8	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
9	Atlas U21	10	+3	12
10	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
11	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12
12	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
13	Atlante U21	10	−5	11
14	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10
15	Tigres UANL U21	11	−9	9
16	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8
17	Juarez U21	10	−4	8
18	Queretaro U21	9	−6	6