Puebla U21 v UNAM Pumas U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Puebla U21DrawUNAM Pumas U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Puebla U21 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puebla U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puebla U21 40%, draw 31%, UNAM Pumas U21 29%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Puebla U21 v UNAM Pumas U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Puebla U21 win40%

Draw31%

UNAM Pumas U21 win29%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puebla U21

UNAM Pumas U21

9Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
12	UNAM Pumas U21	14	0	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puebla u21 winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Puebla U21 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puebla U21 v UNAM Pumas U21~~1.23 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 15 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 19~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puebla U21 win	40%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
UNAM Pumas U21 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Puebla U21 or draw	71%	–	–
Puebla U21 clean sheet	37%	–	–
UNAM Pumas U21 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.1 9.5 5.4 1 11.9 14.3 6.5 2.2 2 8.1 8.0 4.0 3 3.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puebla U21 down, UNAM Pumas U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 455 Liga MX U21 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puebla U21 at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). UNAM Pumas U21 away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Puebla U21, 1.00 for UNAM Pumas U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PUE 2–2 UNA · UNA 1–2 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 15 Sept

PUEBLA U21

LDDLDD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

UNAM PUMAS U21

WDWWDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	14	+24	40
2	Club Leon U21	14	+7	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	14	−3	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	−4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	−4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	−4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
10	Monterrey U21	13	+5	19
11	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
12	UNAM Pumas U21	14	0	19
13	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
14	Juarez U21	14	−3	19
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	14	−7	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6