Puebla U21 v Monterrey U21

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Puebla U21 win at 43%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Puebla U21 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
3. 1′KICK-OFF Puebla U21 v Monterrey U21
4. 27′Puebla U21 score on 26′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–9
5. 27′We published Puebla U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–9
6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Puebla U21 1–0 Monterrey U21
7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Puebla U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
9. 43′We published Puebla U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
10. 45′HALF-TIME Puebla U21 1–0 Monterrey U21
11. 46′SECOND HALF Puebla U21 1–0 Monterrey U21
12. 57′Puebla U21 find the net on 56′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
13. 57′We published Puebla U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
14. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Puebla U21 2–0 Monterrey U21
15. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Puebla U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
16. 66′A goal for Monterrey U21 on 66′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
17. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Puebla U21 2–1 Monterrey U21
18. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Puebla U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 81% now
19. 67′We published Puebla U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–3
20. 68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–2
21. 73′We published Puebla U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
22. 80′We published Puebla U21 at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
23. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Puebla U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
24. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 51%. 2–2 · 28–51–21
25. 91′Monterrey U21 score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 4–93–3
26. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Puebla U21 2–2 Monterrey U21
27. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Puebla U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
28. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Puebla U21 win 96%)
29. 92′We said Puebla U21 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–95–2
30. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Puebla U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
31. 93′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–96–2
32. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
33. FTFULL TIME Puebla U21 2–2 Monterrey U21
34. FTPuebla U21 2–2 Monterrey U21 after 90 minutes, as graded · Puebla U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.