Pachuca U21 v Necaxa U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Pachuca U21 0–1 Necaxa U21 PACHUCA U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pachuca U21 win~~60%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.120

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.857

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pachuca U21 win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pachuca U21 60% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–17
1′KICK-OFF Pachuca U21 v Necaxa U21
2′Little has changed for our model: Pachuca U21 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
28′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Pachuca U21
42′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Necaxa U21
44′A red card for Necaxa U21 on 42′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 47–37–17
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Pachuca U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 47% now
45′A red card for Necaxa U21 on 42′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 46–37–16
45′We said Pachuca U21 at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–37–16
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pachuca U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 54% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pachuca U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 47% now
45′HALF-TIME Pachuca U21 0–0 Necaxa U21
46′SECOND HALF Pachuca U21 0–0 Necaxa U21
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Pachuca U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Pachuca U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Pachuca U21 0–1 Necaxa U21
FTFULL TIME Pachuca U21 0–1 Necaxa U21
FTPachuca U21 0–1 Necaxa U21 · Pachuca U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Pachuca U21 win60%

Draw24%

Necaxa U21 win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pachuca U21

Necaxa U21

15Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
12	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pachuca u21 winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

60% The market49%

Us60%

~~Market~~49%

We make Pachuca U21 a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pachuca u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pachuca U21 win	60%	49%	+11
Draw	24%	26%	−1
Necaxa U21 win	16%	26%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Pachuca U21 or draw	84%	74%	+10
Pachuca U21 clean sheet	43%	–	–
Necaxa U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.9 4.9 2.5 1 11.6 11.5 4.5 2 11.4 9.6 4.1 3 7.0 5.9 2.5 4 3.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pachuca U21 down, Necaxa U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 429 Liga MX U21 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pachuca U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Necaxa U21 away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Pachuca U21, 0.85 for Necaxa U21. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAC 3–3 NEC · NEC 1–2 PAC

Form · last six in Liga MX U21

PACHUCA U21

DDDDWL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

NECAXA U21

WWDLLW1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+11	27
2	Club Leon U21	11	+8	24
3	Club Tijuana U21	11	+5	19
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	16
6	Puebla U21	11	+3	15
7	Atlante U21	11	−4	14
8	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
9	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
10	Atlas U21	11	+1	12
11	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
12	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12
13	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
14	Juarez U21	11	−3	11
15	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10
16	Tigres UANL U21	11	−9	9
17	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6