Pachuca U21 v Cruz Azul U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 19:01

Pachuca U21 3–1 Cruz Azul U21 PACHUCA U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pachuca U21 win~~55%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pachuca U21 win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pachuca U21 was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–20
1′KICK-OFF Pachuca U21 v Cruz Azul U21
15′A goal for Pachuca U21 on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Pachuca U21 1–0 Cruz Azul U21
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Pachuca U21 win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
16′We published Pachuca U21 at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
41′Pachuca U21 score on 41′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Pachuca U21 2–0 Cruz Azul U21
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Pachuca U21 win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
42′We published Pachuca U21 at 55%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Pachuca U21 2–0 Cruz Azul U21
46′SECOND HALF Pachuca U21 2–0 Cruz Azul U21
47′Cruz Azul U21 find the net on 47′. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Pachuca U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Pachuca U21 win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–15–4
54′A goal for Pachuca U21 on 54′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Pachuca U21 3–1 Cruz Azul U21
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Pachuca U21 win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Pachuca U21
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Pachuca U21 win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
64′We published Pachuca U21 at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
77′We published Pachuca U21 at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
84′A goal for Pachuca U21 on 84′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Pachuca U21 3–1 Cruz Azul U21
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Pachuca U21 win: 55% at kick-off, over 99% now
85′We published Pachuca U21 at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pachuca U21 3–1 Cruz Azul U21
FTPachuca U21 3–1 Cruz Azul U21 · Pachuca U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pachuca U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pachuca U21 55%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul U21 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Pachuca U21 v Cruz Azul U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Pachuca U21 win55%

Draw26%

Cruz Azul U21 win20%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pachuca U21

Cruz Azul U21

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pachuca u21 winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

55% The market51%

Us55%

~~Market~~51%

We make Pachuca U21 a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pachuca U21 v Cruz Azul U21~~1.72 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 16~~17 v 12

~~The market · Pachuca U21 win~~51% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pachuca U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pachuca U21 win	55%	51%	+4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Cruz Azul U21 win	20%	23%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	52%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Pachuca U21 or draw	80%	77%	+3
Pachuca U21 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Cruz Azul U21 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.0 5.6 3.1 1 11.0 12.2 5.3 2 10.3 9.6 4.5 3 5.9 5.5 2.6 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pachuca U21 down, Cruz Azul U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 444 Liga MX U21 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.5% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pachuca U21 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cruz Azul U21 away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Pachuca U21, 0.94 for Cruz Azul U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CRU 0–0 PAC · PAC 5–0 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 4 Sept

PACHUCA U21

DDWLLL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

CRUZ AZUL U21

WLLLLL4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	13	+9	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Atl. San Luis U21	13	−3	21
5	Club Tijuana U21	12	+4	20
6	Club America U21	12	+3	19
7	Juarez U21	13	−2	19
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Atlante U21	13	−5	18
10	Puebla U21	12	+2	17
11	Monterrey U21	11	+4	16
12	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
13	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
14	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6