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Necaxa U21 v Juarez U21

Necaxa U21
2–3Full time
Juarez U21

Liga MX U21 · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31
Necaxa U21 2–3 Juarez U21 NECAXA U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Necaxa U21 win36%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.755
The market’s Brier score0.699

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Necaxa U21 win at 36%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Necaxa U21 was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–35–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Necaxa U21 v Juarez U21
  4. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Necaxa U21 win 36%)
  5. 24′Juarez U21 find the net on 24′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–23–67
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Necaxa U21 0–1 Juarez U21
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Necaxa U21 win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
  8. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Juarez U21 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 40%)
  9. 25′We said Necaxa U21 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
  10. 30′We said Necaxa U21 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  12. 38′A goal for Necaxa U21 on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–45–25
  13. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Necaxa U21 1–1 Juarez U21
  14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Necaxa U21 win: 36% at kick-off, 30% now
  15. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Juarez U21 win 70%)
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Necaxa U21 1–1 Juarez U21
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Necaxa U21 1–1 Juarez U21
  18. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Necaxa U21 win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
  19. 56′We said Necaxa U21 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
  20. 58′Juarez U21 score on 58′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–19–77
  21. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Necaxa U21 1–2 Juarez U21
  22. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Necaxa U21 win: 36% at kick-off, 4% now
  23. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Juarez U21 win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 57%)
  24. 59′We said Necaxa U21 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
  25. 59′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
  26. 66′Necaxa U21 find the net on 66′. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–64–16
  27. 66′We said Necaxa U21 at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–64–16
  28. 66′4 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 19–64–16
  29. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Necaxa U21 2–2 Juarez U21
  30. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Necaxa U21 win: 36% at kick-off, 19% now
  31. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Juarez U21 win 80%)
  32. 81′A red card for Necaxa U21 on 81′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 9–83–8
  33. 81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Necaxa U21
  34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Necaxa U21 win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  35. 94′A goal for Juarez U21 on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–1–99
  36. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Necaxa U21 2–3 Juarez U21
  37. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Juarez U21 win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 98%)
  38. 95′That is 5, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–1–99
  39. FTFULL TIME Necaxa U21 2–3 Juarez U21
  40. FTNecaxa U21 2–3 Juarez U21 · Necaxa U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Necaxa U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Necaxa U21 36%, draw 34%, Juarez U21 29%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Necaxa U21 v Juarez U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Necaxa U21 win36%
Draw34%
Juarez U21 win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Necaxa U21

Juarez U21

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Necaxa U2113−321
8Juarez U2113−219

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · necaxa u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
36% The market39%
Us36%
Market39%

We make Necaxa U21 a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Necaxa U21 v Juarez U211.02 – 0.88
Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 11 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 21 v 195 v 8
The market · Necaxa U21 win39% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 15:43
Our probability · Necaxa U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Necaxa U21 win36%39%−3
Draw34%29%+5
Juarez U21 win29%32%−3
Over 2.5 goals30%45%−15
Both teams to score39%51%−12
Over 1.5 goals58%69%−11
Over 3.5 goals13%25%−12
Necaxa U21 or draw71%68%+3
Necaxa U21 clean sheet42%––
Juarez U21 clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.5%
0123450 16.5 11.8 5.8 1 13.8 14.7 5.9 2 7.8 6.8 3.0 3 2.7 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Necaxa U21 down, Juarez U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting0.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsJUA 1–0 NEC · NEC 0–0 JUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 11 Sept

NECAXA U21

LLWWLD0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

JUAREZ U21

DLLWDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Toluca U2113+2137
2Club Leon U2113+931
3Guadalajara Chivas U2113021
4Atl. San Luis U2113−321
5Necaxa U2113−321
6Club America U2113+320
7Club Tijuana U2113−120
8Juarez U2113−219
9Puebla U2113+218
10Atlante U2113−518
11Monterrey U2112+417
12UNAM Pumas U2113017
13Santos Laguna U2113−217
14Cruz Azul U2113−116
15Atlas U2113014
16Tigres UANL U2113−613
17Pachuca U2113−612
18Queretaro U2112−106

The competition's standings before kick-off.