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Necaxa U21 v Atlas U21

Necaxa U21
1–2Full time
Atlas U21

Liga MX U21 · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31
Necaxa U21 1–2 Atlas U21 NECAXA U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Necaxa U21 win44%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.807
The market’s Brier score0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Necaxa U21 win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Necaxa U21 was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Necaxa U21 v Atlas U21
  4. 29′Atlas U21 find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Necaxa U21 0–1 Atlas U21
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
  7. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Atlas U21 win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Necaxa U21 win 15%)
  8. 30′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–61
  9. 31′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  10. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  11. 32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  12. 34′A goal for Necaxa U21 on 33′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–36–26
  13. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Necaxa U21 1–1 Atlas U21
  14. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
  15. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Atlas U21 win 24%)
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Necaxa U21 1–1 Atlas U21
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Necaxa U21 1–1 Atlas U21
  18. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  19. 50′Atlas U21 score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  20. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Necaxa U21 1–2 Atlas U21
  21. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
  22. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Atlas U21 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
  23. 51′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  24. 51′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  25. 52′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–46–22
  26. 52′GOAL DISALLOWED · 52' Atlas U21
  27. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 32% now
  28. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Atlas U21 win 22%)
  29. 58′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
  30. 67′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
  31. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
  32. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  33. 88′Atlas U21 score on 88′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  34. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Necaxa U21 1–2 Atlas U21
  35. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Necaxa U21 win: 44% at kick-off, under 1% now
  36. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Atlas U21 win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
  37. 89′We said Necaxa U21 at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  38. FTFULL TIME Necaxa U21 1–2 Atlas U21
  39. FTNecaxa U21 1–2 Atlas U21 · Necaxa U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Necaxa U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Necaxa U21 44%, draw 29%, Atlas U21 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Necaxa U21 v Atlas U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Necaxa U21 win44%
Draw29%
Atlas U21 win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Necaxa U21

Atlas U21

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Necaxa U2111−318
15Atlas U2111−110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · necaxa u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
44% The market41%
Us44%
Market41%

We make Necaxa U21 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Necaxa U21 v Atlas U211.40 – 1.04
Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 18 v 107 v 15
The market · Necaxa U21 win41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5716 OCT 15:39
Our probability · Necaxa U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Necaxa U21 win44%41%+3
Draw29%26%+3
Atlas U21 win27%33%−6
Over 2.5 goals44%56%−12
Both teams to score50%59%−9
Over 1.5 goals71%78%−7
Over 3.5 goals23%35%−12
Necaxa U21 or draw73%67%+6
Necaxa U21 clean sheet35%––
Atlas U21 clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 9.8 8.1 4.8 1 11.2 13.6 6.6 2.3 2 8.5 8.8 4.6 3 4.0 4.1 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Necaxa U21 down, Atlas U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsNEC 1–2 ATL · ATL 1–2 NEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug

NECAXA U21

WDLLWW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

ATLAS U21

WWLLDL2–0 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Toluca U2111+1331
2Club Leon U2111+1130
3Guadalajara Chivas U2111+421
4Club Tijuana U2111+419
5Club America U2111+318
6Atl. San Luis U2111−118
7Necaxa U2111−318
8Cruz Azul U2111+216
9Puebla U2111+216
10Juarez U2111−116
11Atlante U2111−515
12Monterrey U2110+213
13UNAM Pumas U2111−213
14Santos Laguna U2111−413
15Atlas U2111−110
16Pachuca U2111−69
17Tigres UANL U2111−117
18Queretaro U2110−76

The competition's standings before kick-off.