Monterrey U21 v Pachuca U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

After 90 minutesGraded 23 Oct 03:22

Monterrey U21 2–2 Pachuca U21 PACHUCA U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pachuca U21 win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

Corrected on 23 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 2–0; the score is now 2–2 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Pachuca U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterrey U21 36%, draw 25%, Pachuca U21 39%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Monterrey U21 v Pachuca U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Monterrey U21 win36%

Draw25%

Pachuca U21 win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterrey U21

Pachuca U21

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
17	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pachuca u21 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Pachuca U21 a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monterrey U21 v Pachuca U21~~1.53 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~14 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pachuca U21 win

Published at 38%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monterrey U21 win	36%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Pachuca U21 win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Monterrey U21 or draw	61%	–	–
Monterrey U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Pachuca U21 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.4 6.2 5.6 3.0 1 5.8 11.6 8.5 4.5 2 5.1 8.1 6.4 3.4 3 2.6 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monterrey U21 down, Pachuca U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 440 Liga MX U21 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monterrey U21 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Pachuca U21 away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Monterrey U21, 1.60 for Pachuca U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–3 PAC · PAC 2–1 MON · MON 0–1 PAC · PAC 3–0 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 22 Aug

MONTERREY U21

LWLWLL1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–5 · 0–3

PACHUCA U21

DDDWLL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	12	+11	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	12	+3	19
6	Juarez U21	12	0	19
7	Atl. San Luis U21	12	−4	18
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16
10	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
11	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
12	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
13	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
14	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	−8	10
17	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9
18	Queretaro U21	11	−9	6