Monterrey U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Monterrey U21 4–1 Guadalajara Chivas U21 MONTERREY U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monterrey U21 win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.504

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monterrey U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterrey U21 42%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas U21 32%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Monterrey U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Monterrey U21 win42%

Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas U21 win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterrey U21

Guadalajara Chivas U21

3Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	13	0	21
13	Monterrey U21	12	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · monterrey u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:22 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Monterrey U21 a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monterrey U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21~~1.65 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 21~~13 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monterrey U21 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monterrey U21 win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas U21 win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Monterrey U21 or draw	68%	–	–
Monterrey U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.9 5.5 4.7 2.2 1 6.6 11.9 7.6 3.6 2 6.4 8.9 6.3 3.0 3 3.5 4.9 3.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monterrey U21 down, Guadalajara Chivas U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 452 Liga MX U21 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monterrey U21 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Guadalajara Chivas U21 away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Monterrey U21, 1.42 for Guadalajara Chivas U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 3–3 GUA · GUA 3–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 13 Sept

MONTERREY U21

LWLLDD1–2 · 2–0 · 4–5 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–2

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21

WLWWLD2–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	13	+21	37
2	Club Leon U21	13	+10	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	13	0	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	−4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	−4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	−4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
10	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
11	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
12	Juarez U21	14	−3	19
13	Monterrey U21	12	+2	16
14	UNAM Pumas U21	13	−1	16
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6