Juarez U21 v Atlante U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 18:31

Juarez U21 0–2 Atlante U21 JUAREZ U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Juarez U21 win~~52%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.994

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.696

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Juarez U21 win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Juarez U21 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
1′KICK-OFF Juarez U21 v Atlante U21
35′Atlante U21 score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–27–57
35′We said Juarez U21 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–27–57
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Juarez U21 0–1 Atlante U21
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Juarez U21 win: 52% at kick-off, 16% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Atlante U21 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Juarez U21 win 44%)
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 16–27–57
41′We said Juarez U21 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
45′HALF-TIME Juarez U21 0–1 Atlante U21
45′SECOND HALF Juarez U21 0–1 Atlante U21
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Juarez U21 win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
54′We said Juarez U21 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
67′We said Juarez U21 at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
67′Atlante U21 find the net on 67′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Juarez U21 0–2 Atlante U21
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Juarez U21 win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
90′0–2 at the end. Our 52% on Juarez U21 misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Juarez U21 0–2 Atlante U21
FTJuarez U21 0–2 Atlante U21 · Juarez U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Juarez U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juarez U21 52%, draw 28%, Atlante U21 20%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Juarez U21 v Atlante U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Juarez U21 win52%

Draw28%

Atlante U21 win20%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juarez U21

Atlante U21

3Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Juarez U21	12	0	19
14	Atlante U21	12	−7	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · juarez u21 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

52% The market39%

Us52%

~~Market~~39%

We make Juarez U21 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juarez U21 v Atlante U21~~1.50 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 15~~6 v 14

~~The market · Juarez U21 win~~39% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Juarez U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juarez U21 win	52%	39%	+13
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Atlante U21 win	20%	32%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	52%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Juarez U21 or draw	80%	68%	+12
Juarez U21 clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atlante U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 11.0 7.1 3.4 1 13.6 13.0 4.9 2 10.9 8.9 3.7 3 5.5 4.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juarez U21 down, Atlante U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 441 Liga MX U21 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Juarez U21 at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlante U21 away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Juarez U21, 0.82 for Atlante U21. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept

JUAREZ U21

DDLLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

ATLANTE U21

LDDWWL0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 5–4 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	12	+11	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	12	+4	20
5	Club America U21	12	+3	19
6	Juarez U21	12	0	19
7	Atl. San Luis U21	12	−4	18
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Puebla U21	12	+2	17
10	Monterrey U21	11	+4	16
11	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
12	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
13	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
14	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	−8	10
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9
18	Queretaro U21	11	−9	6