Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Tigres UANL U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 23:20

Guadalajara Chivas U21 2–5 Tigres UANL U21 GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalajara Chivas U21 win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.845

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.881

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalajara Chivas U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guadalajara Chivas U21 46%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL U21 26%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Tigres UANL U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Guadalajara Chivas U21 win46%

Draw28%

Tigres UANL U21 win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guadalajara Chivas U21

Tigres UANL U21

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	21
17	Tigres UANL U21	11	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalajara chivas u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 15:08 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Guadalajara Chivas U21 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Tigres UANL U21~~1.49 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 7~~3 v 17

~~The market · Guadalajara Chivas U21 win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalajara Chivas U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalajara Chivas U21 win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Tigres UANL U21 win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Guadalajara Chivas U21 or draw	74%	75%	−1
Guadalajara Chivas U21 clean sheet	35%	–	–
Tigres UANL U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.0 7.4 4.3 1 10.9 13.2 6.4 2.3 2 8.8 9.1 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalajara Chivas U21 down, Tigres UANL U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 434 Liga MX U21 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guadalajara Chivas U21 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tigres UANL U21 away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Guadalajara Chivas U21, 1.05 for Tigres UANL U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TIG 1–1 GUA · TIG 2–2 GUA · GUA 1–1 TIG · GUA 1–2 TIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 29 Aug

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21

WDWLWW3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–0

TIGRES UANL U21

LDWDDL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+13	31
2	Club Leon U21	11	+11	30
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	18
6	Atl. San Luis U21	11	−1	18
7	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
8	Cruz Azul U21	11	+2	16
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16
10	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
11	Juarez U21	11	−1	16
12	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
13	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
14	Atlas U21	12	0	13
15	Santos Laguna U21	11	−4	13
16	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9
17	Tigres UANL U21	11	−11	7
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6