Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Necaxa U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

After 90 minutesGraded 22 Oct 03:35

Guadalajara Chivas U21 0–0 Necaxa U21 GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guadalajara Chivas U21 win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.841

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guadalajara Chivas U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guadalajara Chivas U21 52%, draw 27%, Necaxa U21 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Necaxa U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Guadalajara Chivas U21 win52%

Draw27%

Necaxa U21 win21%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guadalajara Chivas U21

Necaxa U21

3Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guadalajara chivas u21 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Guadalajara Chivas U21 a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guadalajara Chivas U21 v Necaxa U21~~1.58 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 18~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guadalajara Chivas U21 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalajara Chivas U21 win	52%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Necaxa U21 win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas U21 or draw	79%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas U21 clean sheet	40%	–	–
Necaxa U21 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.3 6.6 3.5 1 11.9 12.9 5.5 2 10.2 9.3 4.3 3 5.4 4.9 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalajara Chivas U21 down, Necaxa U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 441 Liga MX U21 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guadalajara Chivas U21 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Necaxa U21 away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Guadalajara Chivas U21, 0.92 for Necaxa U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEC 1–1 GUA · GUA 0–2 NEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 5 Sept

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21

DWLWWL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–5

NECAXA U21

DLLWWL0–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	12	+16	34
2	Club Leon U21	12	+11	31
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	12	+1	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	12	+4	20
5	Club America U21	12	+3	19
6	Juarez U21	12	0	19
7	Atl. San Luis U21	12	−4	18
8	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
9	Puebla U21	12	+2	17
10	Monterrey U21	11	+4	16
11	Cruz Azul U21	12	+1	16
12	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
13	Santos Laguna U21	12	−2	16
14	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
15	Atlas U21	12	0	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	12	−8	10
17	Pachuca U21	12	−8	9
18	Queretaro U21	11	−9	6