Cruz Azul U21 v Juarez U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

After 90 minutesGraded 23 Oct 03:22

Cruz Azul U21 1–1 Juarez U21 CRUZ AZUL U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cruz Azul U21 win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.744

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

Corrected on 23 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 1–2; the score is now 1–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cruz Azul U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cruz Azul U21 39%, draw 32%, Juarez U21 28%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Cruz Azul U21 v Juarez U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cruz Azul U21 win39%

Draw32%

Juarez U21 win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cruz Azul U21

Juarez U21

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cruz Azul U21	11	+2	16
11	Juarez U21	11	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cruz azul u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Cruz Azul U21 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cruz Azul U21 v Juarez U21~~1.12 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~8 v 11

~~The market · Cruz Azul U21 win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cruz Azul U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cruz Azul U21 win	39%	39%	0
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Juarez U21 win	28%	32%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Both teams to score	41%	51%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
Cruz Azul U21 or draw	72%	68%	+4
Cruz Azul U21 clean sheet	41%	–	–
Juarez U21 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.3%

0123450 14.3 10.9 5.4 1 13.7 14.3 6.0 2 8.3 7.4 3.4 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cruz Azul U21 down, Juarez U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 434 Liga MX U21 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cruz Azul U21 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Juarez U21 away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Cruz Azul U21, 0.91 for Juarez U21. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JUA 0–0 CRU · CRU 0–1 JUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug

CRUZ AZUL U21

LWLLLL1–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–2

JUAREZ U21

DDDLLW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+13	31
2	Club Leon U21	11	+11	30
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	18
6	Atl. San Luis U21	11	−1	18
7	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
8	Cruz Azul U21	11	+2	16
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16
10	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
11	Juarez U21	11	−1	16
12	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
13	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
14	Atlas U21	12	0	13
15	Santos Laguna U21	11	−4	13
16	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9
17	Tigres UANL U21	11	−11	7
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6