Club Tijuana U21 v Puebla U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:35

Club Tijuana U21 0–0 Puebla U21 CLUB TIJUANA U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Tijuana U21 win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.838

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Tijuana U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Tijuana U21 48%, draw 29%, Puebla U21 23%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Club Tijuana U21 v Puebla U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Club Tijuana U21 win48%

Draw29%

Puebla U21 win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Tijuana U21

Puebla U21

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club tijuana u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Club Tijuana U21 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Tijuana U21 v Puebla U21~~1.43 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~4 v 9

~~The market · Club Tijuana U21 win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Tijuana U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Tijuana U21 win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Puebla U21 win	23%	25%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Club Tijuana U21 or draw	77%	75%	+2
Club Tijuana U21 clean sheet	40%	–	–
Puebla U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.7 7.8 4.0 1 12.7 13.4 5.7 2 9.8 8.9 4.1 3 4.7 4.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Tijuana U21 down, Puebla U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 432 Liga MX U21 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Tijuana U21 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Puebla U21 away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Club Tijuana U21, 0.92 for Puebla U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CLU 1–2 PUE · PUE 1–1 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug

CLUB TIJUANA U21

WDWLDL2–1 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

PUEBLA U21

DWLDDL1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+13	31
2	Club Leon U21	11	+11	30
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	18
6	Atl. San Luis U21	11	−1	18
7	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
8	Cruz Azul U21	11	+2	16
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16
10	Juarez U21	11	−1	16
11	Atlante U21	11	−5	15
12	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
13	Atlas U21	12	0	13
14	UNAM Pumas U21	11	−2	13
15	Santos Laguna U21	11	−4	13
16	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9
17	Tigres UANL U21	11	−11	7
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6