Club Leon U21 v Toluca U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Club Leon U21 1–4 Toluca U21 CLUB LEON U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Leon U21 win~~38%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.677

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Leon U21 win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Club Leon U21 was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Club Leon U21 v Toluca U21
2′Toluca U21 score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–20–62
2′We said Club Leon U21 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–20–62
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Club Leon U21 0–1 Toluca U21
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Club Leon U21 win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Toluca U21 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Club Leon U21 win 38%)
11′Toluca U21 find the net on 11′. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–11–83
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Club Leon U21 0–2 Toluca U21
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Club Leon U21 win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
12′We said Club Leon U21 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
21′We said Club Leon U21 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
45′HALF-TIME Club Leon U21 0–2 Toluca U21
46′SECOND HALF Club Leon U21 0–2 Toluca U21
55′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
60′A goal for Club Leon U21 on 60′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Club Leon U21 1–2 Toluca U21
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–74
66′Toluca U21 score on 66′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–96
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Club Leon U21 1–3 Toluca U21
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–96
82′Toluca U21 find the net on 81′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Club Leon U21 1–4 Toluca U21
FTFULL TIME Club Leon U21 1–4 Toluca U21
FTClub Leon U21 1–4 Toluca U21 · Club Leon U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Leon U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Leon U21 38%, draw 29%, Toluca U21 33%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Club Leon U21 v Toluca U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Club Leon U21 win38%

Draw29%

Toluca U21 win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Leon U21

Toluca U21

4Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club leon u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

38% The market27%

Us38%

~~Market~~27%

We make Club Leon U21 a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Leon U21 v Toluca U21~~1.37 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 33 v 37~~2 v 1

~~The market · Club Leon U21 win~~27% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Leon U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Leon U21 win	38%	27%	+11
Draw	29%	29%	0
Toluca U21 win	33%	44%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Club Leon U21 or draw	67%	56%	+11
Club Leon U21 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Toluca U21 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 8.6 7.8 5.7 2.4 1 8.6 13.6 7.7 3.3 2 6.8 8.4 5.3 2.2 3 3.1 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Leon U21 down, Toluca U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 452 Liga MX U21 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Leon U21 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Toluca U21 away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Club Leon U21, 1.26 for Toluca U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOL 4–1 CLU · CLU 2–2 TOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 12 Sept

CLUB LEON U21

WWWWDL3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

TOLUCA U21

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	13	+21	37
2	Club Leon U21	13	+10	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	13	0	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	−4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	−4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	−4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
10	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
11	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
12	Juarez U21	14	−3	19
13	Monterrey U21	12	+2	16
14	UNAM Pumas U21	13	−1	16
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	−6	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6