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Club Leon U21 v Club America U21

Club Leon U21

1–1After penalties

Club America U21

Liga MX U21 · SAT 17 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 18 Oct 01:01

Club Leon U21 1–1 Club America U21 CLUB LEON U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Club Leon U21 win~~47%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Leon U21 win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Club Leon U21 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Club Leon U21 v Club America U21
17′Club Leon U21 find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
17′We said Club Leon U21 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Club Leon U21 1–0 Club America U21
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Club Leon U21 1–0 Club America U21
46′SECOND HALF Club Leon U21 1–0 Club America U21
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Club Leon U21
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Club America U21
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Club Leon U21 1–1 Club America U21
55′We said Club Leon U21 at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
61′A goal for Club America U21 on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–52–19
61′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–52–19
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Club Leon U21 1–1 Club America U21
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 30% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Club Leon U21 win 30%)
62′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
69′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
75′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
80′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
84′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Club Leon U21 win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
91′We said Club Leon U21 at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Club Leon U21 1–1 Club America U21
FTClub Leon U21 1–1 Club America U21 after 90 minutes, as graded · Club Leon U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Leon U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Leon U21 47%, draw 28%, Club America U21 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Club Leon U21 v Club America U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Club Leon U21 win47%

Draw28%

Club America U21 win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Leon U21

Club America U21

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga MX U21

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga MX U21

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Club Leon U21	11	+11	30
5	Club America U21	11	+3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club leon u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market38%

Us47%

~~Market~~38%

We make Club Leon U21 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Leon U21 v Club America U21~~1.51 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 18~~2 v 5

~~The market · Club Leon U21 win~~38% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Leon U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Leon U21 win	47%	38%	+9
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Club America U21 win	25%	33%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Club Leon U21 or draw	75%	67%	+8
Club Leon U21 clean sheet	36%	–	–
Club America U21 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.9 7.2 4.2 1 10.9 13.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.9 9.1 4.7 3 4.5 4.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Leon U21 down, Club America U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 434 Liga MX U21 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Leon U21 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Club America U21 away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Club Leon U21, 1.04 for Club America U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEO 3–1 AME · AME 0–1 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 28 Aug

CLUB LEON U21

WDWWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

CLUB AMERICA U21

DDWLLW1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+13	31
2	Club Leon U21	11	+11	30
3	Guadalajara Chivas U21	11	+4	21
4	Club Tijuana U21	11	+4	19
5	Club America U21	11	+3	18
6	Atl. San Luis U21	11	−1	18
7	Necaxa U21	12	−4	18
8	Cruz Azul U21	11	+2	16
9	Puebla U21	11	+2	16
10	UNAM Pumas U21	12	0	16
11	Juarez U21	11	−1	16
12	Atlante U21	12	−7	15
13	Monterrey U21	10	+2	13
14	Atlas U21	12	0	13
15	Santos Laguna U21	11	−4	13
16	Pachuca U21	11	−6	9
17	Tigres UANL U21	11	−11	7
18	Queretaro U21	10	−7	6