Atlas U21 v Puebla U21 prediction · Liga MX U21

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlas U21DrawPuebla U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlas U21 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlas U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlas U21 41%, draw 31%, Puebla U21 28%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Atlas U21 v Puebla U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atlas U21 win41%

Draw31%

Puebla U21 win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlas U21

Puebla U21

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga MX U21

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlas u21 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Atlas U21 a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlas U21 v Puebla U21~~1.24 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas U21 win	41%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Puebla U21 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Atlas U21 or draw	72%	–	–
Atlas U21 clean sheet	38%	–	–
Puebla U21 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.4 9.5 5.2 1 12.3 14.3 6.4 2.1 2 8.3 8.0 3.9 3 3.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas U21 down, Puebla U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 455 Liga MX U21 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas U21 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Puebla U21 away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Atlas U21, 0.98 for Puebla U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 PUE · PUE 0–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga MX U21 this season · since 12 Sept

ATLAS U21

LLDLWD0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

PUEBLA U21

LDDLDD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	14	+24	40
2	Club Leon U21	14	+7	33
3	Club America U21	13	+3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	14	−3	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	−4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	−4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	−4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	+3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	−1	20
10	Monterrey U21	13	+5	19
11	Cruz Azul U21	13	+1	19
12	UNAM Pumas U21	14	0	19
13	Santos Laguna U21	13	−1	19
14	Juarez U21	14	−3	19
15	Atlas U21	13	−1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	14	−7	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	−5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	−10	6