Home › Football › Liga MX U21 › Atlas U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21

Atlas U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21

Atlas U21

0–2Full time

Guadalajara Chivas U21

Liga MX U21 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Atlas U21 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 ATLAS U21 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlas U21 win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.670

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlas U21 win at 38%.
2′KICK-OFF Atlas U21 v Guadalajara Chivas U21
4′Much as we predicted: Atlas U21 was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–34
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Atlas U21 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas U21
45′HALF-TIME Atlas U21 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas U21
46′SECOND HALF Atlas U21 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas U21
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Atlas U21 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas U21
90′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Atlas U21
FTFULL TIME Atlas U21 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas U21
FTAtlas U21 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 · Atlas U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atlas U21 win38%

Draw29%

Guadalajara Chivas U21 win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlas u21 winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Atlas U21 a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlas u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlas U21 win	38%	36%	+1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Guadalajara Chivas U21 win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−2
Atlas U21 or draw	67%	65%	+2
Atlas U21 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Guadalajara Chivas U21 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.1 8.4 5.9 2.4 1 9.1 13.7 7.7 3.2 2 6.8 8.3 5.1 2.1 3 3.0 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlas U21 down, Guadalajara Chivas U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 425 Liga MX U21 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga MX U21 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.8% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlas U21 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guadalajara Chivas U21 away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Atlas U21, 1.23 for Guadalajara Chivas U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GUA 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–1 GUA · ATL 2–1 GUA · GUA 2–1 ATL

Form · last six in Liga MX U21

ATLAS U21

DWWLLD2–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21

DWDWLW2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Toluca U21	11	+11	27
2	Club Leon U21	11	+8	24
3	Club Tijuana U21	10	+6	19
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	10	+2	16
5	Puebla U21	11	+3	15
6	Monterrey U21	9	+5	13
7	Club America U21	10	0	13
8	Santos Laguna U21	10	−2	13
9	Atlas U21	10	+3	12
10	Pachuca U21	10	−1	12
11	Necaxa U21	10	−5	12
12	UNAM Pumas U21	10	−1	11
13	Atlante U21	10	−5	11
14	Atl. San Luis U21	10	−4	10
15	Tigres UANL U21	11	−9	9
16	Cruz Azul U21	10	−1	8
17	Juarez U21	10	−4	8
18	Queretaro U21	9	−6	6