Atlas U21 v Club America U21

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlas U21 win at 40%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Atlas U21 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Atlas U21 v Club America U21
4. 20′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Atlas U21
5. 21′Atlas U21 are down to ten from 20′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 37–32–31
6. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Atlas U21 win 35%)
7. 45′A goal for Club America U21 on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–68
8. 45′We said Atlas U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–68
9. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–68
10. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Atlas U21 0–1 Club America U21
11. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atlas U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
12. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Club America U21 win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
13. 45′HALF-TIME Atlas U21 0–1 Club America U21
14. 46′We said Atlas U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
15. 46′SECOND HALF Atlas U21 0–1 Club America U21
16. 65′We said Atlas U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
17. 71′Atlas U21 score on 70′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–62–18
18. 71′We said Atlas U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–62–18
19. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Atlas U21 1–1 Club America U21
20. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Atlas U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
21. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Club America U21 win 79%)
22. 73′We said Atlas U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
23. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Atlas U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
24. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 50%. 1–1 · 27–50–23
25. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
26. FTFULL TIME Atlas U21 1–1 Club America U21
27. FTAtlas U21 1–1 Club America U21 after 90 minutes, as graded · Atlas U21 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.